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2019-BCG面试经验BCG’SVALUEMANAGEMENTFRAMEWORKANOVERVIEWFORMBASTUDENTSppt课件.ppt

2019-BCG面试经验BCG’SVALUEMANAGEMENTFRAMEWORKANOVERVIEWFORMBASTUDENTSppt课件.ppt

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时间：2020-09-17

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1、BCG’SVALUEMANAGEMENTFRAMEWORK ANOVERVIEWFORMBASTUDENTSByRawleyThomasDirectorofResearchTheBostonConsultingGroup200SouthWackerDriveChicago,Illinois60606312-627-2618Thomas.RawleyBCGWHATGETSMEASUREDGETSDONETraditionalValuationTechniquesVersusBCG’sValuationFrameworkTraditionalVa

2、luationTechniquesForecastnominalcashflowsbyestimatingP&LlineitemsandchangestothebalancesheetEstimateterminalvaluewithaperpetuityoftheforecastedlastyear’snetcashflowDeterminecostofcapitalbyweightingequityCAPMcostwithdebtcostDiscountthecashflowsandterminalvaluetopresentvaluew

3、iththeweightedaveragecostofcapitalObservationsonMissingElementsNoperformancemeasuretodetermineifthebusinessisachievingreturnsaboveorbelowthecostofcapitalorifthetrendinthosereturnsisupordownNofadeinperformancetodeterminelikelycashflowsinacompetitiveenvironmentDiscountratesde

4、terminedbypastpricechanges,notfuturelikelycashflowsNoextensiveempiricaltestingBCG’sValuationFrameworkTranslateaccountingstatementstogrosscashflowsandgrosscashinvestmentsinconstantdollarstoproducecashoncashreturnsTranslatecashoncashreturnstoeconomicperformancemeasures(CFROIs

5、)byadjustingforassetlifeandmixofdepreciatingversusnon-depreciatingassetsDeterminesustainableassetgrowthratesFadeCFROIsandassetgrowthratestowardcorporateaveragesconsistentwithlifecycletheoryandempiricalevidencetoestimatefuturecashflows(replacesterminalvaluation)Estimatemarke

6、tderivedrealdiscountratebyequatingthepresentvalueofthecashflowsforalargeaggregatetothesumofthepricesofdebtandequityApplythemarketderiveddiscountratetothecashflowsderivedfromfadingeconomicperformancetodeterminemarketvaluation;subtractdebttodetermineequityvaluationTestmodelva

7、luesagainstactualstockpricesforthousandsoffirmsfor10-40yearsacrossmanycountries;refine,refine,refineMANYASSETSFOLLOWTHESAME USEFULOUTPUTPATTERNASACAR...ConstantDollarLevelAnnuityEconomicLifeLikelyActualOutputOutputDeclinewithStraightLineDepreciationISSUESWITHTRADITIONALRETU

8、RNMEASURES(*)Economicdepreciation=amountofannualsinking-fundpaymentearningCOCrequi

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