股指期货季度报告：是否抄底时.docx

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1、一、是否抄底时？3二、2020年一季度走势回顾31.持续回暖的期指市场32.先阔后窄的跨品种价差走势5三、2020年二季度行情展望81.流动性92.估值153.市场情绪17四、策略推荐20附件1.2019年初政策组合拳22附件2.3月15至今美联储政策概览24........................................................................................26AA202020201.2020300IF152019132500IC193002020191

2、6450IH620192.1WindIC,23.85IF22.93IH6-762%ICIFIHIF300IC50043%2.2Wind2019IC32.3Wind2.ICIFIH202020192.4Wind20191819119++12.12018-20202.5Shibor3%Wind3PMI314152.53Shibor18192020AA19Shibor2311/20200.5%80002341.7217MLF10bp3.15%220LPR10bp22PMI2.53Shibor34501.00%-1.25%A113355

3、0013316316MLFA35002350300232.6Wind20192020ICICIFIH20192020AA2020A1.1.2.327330720bpAA201650%20192.40%90%QFII/RQFIIA3.1AWind226.7%22.5%4.2%3.33.2bpWind3.3bpWind3.4%Wind39319941026.9%315326G202“QE”3235398CDX3LiborOIS3.5Libor-OIS3%Bloomberg3.6CDXbpBloombergA20081.99056.9

4、366.2829.14%25%GDPBloomberg11%14%23%3.715%0.35%2020-202320201041.54385.54392.1450%A-27%3.8Bloomberg20207.0-9.1%3.920192020Q1Bloomberg08080814-15“”3.11Wind3.22Wind3.33Wind“”A/2.AAA16.18508.7324.65-37.815010.50%30021.30%500100027%“”A26.80%3.10APETTMWindA7.63501050%ST

5、OXX503.11PETTMWind503.4/WindA501000500A3.GDPGDP48%2020GDP5.4%2.8%1005003.52020GDPBloomberg3.211987082.982.96310630082.0%390%3.12WindA33003275081.8%3.13A10WindA3.14300500WindIHIC3.15A5Wind20201.IHIHICIC2.Al1300ETF50ETF2àl4.11.20192.153