Motorola 全球采购战略(PCB)课件.ppt

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1、Cross-SectorCommodityStrategyPrintedCircuitBoard(PCB)AndyILLGlobalCommodityManagerMarch2003AGENDAGLOBALPRINTEDCIRCUITBOARDSTEAMPERSONNELSECTORAndyILLGlobalCommodityPCSKenKookPCS(AmericaNandS)EjnarMadsenPCS(Europe)AlvinChanPCS(ASIA)KiritShahiDENSimonLeachCGISS-iDENMichaelMarbleBCSDQRenGTSSFre

2、dHendersonIESS-ACESRickEnlowIESS-MCGKatiaSarleyMCISadmin.TakanoYutakaJapansupportCheeBoonYongCCAanalyistDemandUnpredictableeventsSpecificendmarketdemandHandsetsCablemodemsAutomotiveSupplyTotalavailablecapacityCapacityutilizationRawmaterialsLead-timesConsolidationofsuppliersCommodity&IndustryOu

3、tlook(CCA)FactorsAffectingPriceTrendsDEMANDIraq:TomDavis(Motorolaeconomist,ATD001),Jan’03,ongenericcommoditymarkets:“ThemomentthatthesituationinIraqbeginstoresolveitself(meaningspeedyresolution),thecombinationofhigherconfidenceandavailablefunds(duetothecompanies'increasedprofitsoverthelastthre

4、equarters)shouldmeanthatwewouldseesomethingofasurgeinspending.That,combinedwiththelackofinvestmentinproductioncapacityoverthelastyear-plus,couldkickusintoasupplier'smarketveryquickly--evenfasterthanIhadthought.”“IfwesomehowendupinaprolongedconflictinIraq,thatcouldprolongthecurrenteconomicsitua

5、tionandtheoreticallyevenkickoffaglobalrecession.”Oilpricesmaybedrivenup&inturntriggerarecession(reduceddemand)NorthKorea:couldpotentiallyescalateintowiderissuesUnpredictableEventsElectronicsindustryInturn,macro-economicfactors&semiconductorindustryarestrongindicatorsofelectronicsindustryhealth

6、PCBDemandLinkedto…iSuppliMarkethasshrankfrom2000to2002Prismark:marketexpectedtogrowin2003onbackofelectronicsrecoveryPrismarkMarketestimatedtogrow3.8%,inanenvironmentofdepressedpricesduetoovercapacityDownwardtrend-lineWWPCBMarketValueBooktoBillratio(NAdataonly)IPCB2Bhasbeenconsistentlybelow1.0o

7、ver2002.SuggeststhatcontinuedweaknessinPCBindustrypersists,shortterm(3months)recoveryisnotinsightCaveat:onlyreflectsNAdata.EuropeissimilarwhileChinaispossible>1Demand-HandsetsindustryGartnerDataquest2003handsetdemandpredictedtobehealthy