赫伯特.西蒙：决策理论课件.ppt

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1、Decision-MakingTheEssenceoftheManager’sJob1ITheDecision-MakingProcessDecisionMakingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.TheDecision-MakingProcessIdentifyingaproblemanddecisioncriteriaandallocatingweightstothecriteria.Developing,analyzing,andselectinganalternativeth

2、atcanresolvetheproblem.Implementingtheselectedalternative.Evaluatingthedecision’seffectiveness.234Step1:IdentifyingtheProblemProblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.CharacteristicsofProblemsAproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofi

3、t.Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.5Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteriaDecisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem.Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequi

4、red)Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm)6Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriaDecisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecisionmak

5、ingprocess.7CriteriaandWeightsforComputerReplacementDecisionCriterionWeightMemoryandStorage10Batterylife8CarryingWeight6Warranty4DisplayQuality38CriteriaandWeightsforFranchiseDecisionCriterionWeightStart-upcosts10Franchisorsupport8Financialqualification6Opengeo

6、graphicallocations4Franchisorhistory39Step4:DevelopingAlternativesIdentifyingviablealternativesAlternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.10Step5:AnalyzingAlternativesAppraisingeachalternative’sstrengthsandweaknessesAnalternative’sappraisa

7、lisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesidentifiedinsteps2and3.11AssessedValuesofLaptopComputersUsingDecisionCriteria12EvaluationofLaptopAlternativesAgainstWeightedCriteria13AssessedValuesofFranchiseOpportunitiesUsingDecisionCriteriaStart-upFranchisorFinancialOpe

8、nFranchisorFranchisecostsupportqualificationlocationshistoryCurves1031085Sandwiches87787Jani-king8571010TaxService87787GNC78787RadioShack836108Chem-Dry107867McDonald's410481