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1、TheChinaMiracleDemystifiedJustinYifuLinTheWorldBankWhenChinabeganitstransitionfromaplannedtoamarket-orientedeconomyin1979,itwasapoor,inward-lookingcountrywithapercapitaincomeofUS$182and1atradedependence(tradetoGDP)ratioof11.2percent.China’seconomicperformancesincethenha
2、sbeenmiraculous.AnnualGDPgrowthaveraged9.9percentoverthe30-yearperiod,andannualgrowthininternationaltrade,16.3percentChinaisnowamiddle-incomecountry,withapercapitaGDPofUS$3,688in2009,andmorethan600millionpeoplehaveescapedpoverty.Itstradedependenceratiohasreached65percen
3、t,thehighestamongtheworld’slargeeconomies.In2009ChinaovertookJapanastheworld’ssecondlargesteconomyandreplacedGermanyastheworld’slargestexporterofmerchandise.China’scarmarketisnowtheworld’slargest,andShanghaihasbeentheworld’sbusiestseaportbycargotonnagesince2005.Thespect
4、aculargrowthoverthepastthreedecadesfarexceededtheexpectationsofanyoneattheoutsetofthetransition,includingDengXiaoping,the2architectofChina’sreformandopening-upstrategy.InterestamongacademicsinChina’stransitionanddevelopmentexperiencehasPaperpreparedforthepanelon“Perspec
5、tivesonChineseEconomicGrowth”attheEconometricSocietyWorldCongressinShanghaionAugust19,2010.1Unlessindicatedotherwise,thestatisticsontheChineseeconomyreportedinthepaperarefromChinaStatisticalAbstract2010,ChinaCompendiumofStatistics1949–2008,andvariouseditionsofChinaStati
6、sticalYearbook,publishedbyChinaStatisticsPress.2Deng’sgoalatthattimewastoquadruplethesizeofChina’seconomyin20years,whichwouldhavemeantaverageannualgrowthof7.2percent.Mostpeopleinthe1980s,andevenaslateastheearly1990s,thoughtthatachievingthatgoalwasamissionimpossible.13in
7、creasedexponentiallyinthepastthreedecades.InthispaperItrytoprovideanswerstofiverelatedquestions:WhywasitpossibleforChinatoachievesuchextraordinaryperformanceduringitstransition?WhywasChinaunabletoattainsimilarsuccessbeforeitstransitionstarted?Whydidmostothertransitionec
8、onomies,bothsocialistandnonsocialist,failtoachieveasimilarperformance?Andcanotherdevelopingcountriesachieveasi
