Chapter_13 Consumption and Saving(宏观经济学,多恩布什,第十版).ppt

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1、1Chapter13ConsumptionandSavingItemItemItemEtc.McGraw-Hill/IrwinMacroeconomics,10e©2008TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.2IntroductionConsumptionaccountsforabout70%ofADFluctuationsinCareproportionatelysmallerthanthefluctuationsinGDPConsumptionisrelati

2、velystableInthischapterweseektounderstandconsumptionandthelinkbetweenconsumptionandincomeConsumptiontheoryThedebateoverdifferentconsumptiontheories=debateoverthesizeofthemarginalpropensitytoconsume(MPC)KeynesianmodelMPCishigh,moderntheoriesMPCislow3IntroductionFi

3、gure13-2plotschangesinpercapitaconsumptionandchangesinpercapitadisposableincomeConsumptionfollowsincomeswingsthatlast5-10yearsConsumptiondoesnotrespondtospikesinincome[InsertFigure13-1here]Longtermchangesinincomegeneratechangesinconsumption,butshorttermchangesini

4、ncomedonot.4IntroductionFigure13-2comparesconsumptionthisquartertothepreviousquarter:ConsumptionisalmostperfectlypredictedbypreviousconsumptionThisrelationshipisanoutcomeofthelinkbetweencurrentconsumptionandexpectedfutureconsumptionUsedinthemoderntheoriesofconsum

5、ption[InsertFigure13-2here]5IntroductionEarlyKeynesiantheoriesexplainedconsumptionasafunctionofcurrentdisposableincome(Figure13-3)NoseparationfortemporaryandpermanentincomeThisconsumptionfunctionisoftheform:(1),wherecistheMPCandisonthe[0,1]rangeModernconsumptiont

6、heoriesincorporateintertemporaldynamics[InsertFigure13-3here]6LifeCycleTheoryThelifecyclehypothesisviewsindividualsasplanningtheirconsumptionandsavingsbehavioroverlongperiodswiththeintentionofallocatingtheirconsumptioninthebestpossiblewayovertheirentirelifetimesD

7、ifferentMPCoutofpermanentincome,transitoryincome,andwealthcomparedtotheKeynesiantheorywithasingleMPCKeyassumption:mostpeoplechoosestablelifestyles,orsmoothoutconsumptionovertheirlifetimeIndividualsdonotlikeconsumptiontochangedramaticallyfromyeartoyearThesimplestf

8、ormofthisassumptionistoconsumethesameamountineveryyear7LifeCycleTheorySupposeanindividual:Startslifeatage20Planstoworkuntilage65Willdieatage80Hasannuallaborinc