财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap006.ppt

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1、CHAPTERSIXMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Chapter6Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouthern

2、MethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchool6-2WhatYouWillLearnFromThisChapterWhataP/EratiomeansWhat“abnormalearningsgrowth”isHowforecastingabnormalearningsgrowthyieldstheintrinsicP/EratioWhatismeantbyanormalP/EratioThedifferencebetweenex-dividendearning

3、sgrowthandcum-dividendearningsgrowthThedifferencebetweenaCase1andCase2abnormalearningsgrowthvaluationHowabnormalearningsgrowthvaluationprotectstheinvestorfrompayingtoomuchforearningsgrowthTheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofusinganabnormalearningsgrowthvaluationandhowthevaluationcompare

4、swithresidualearningsvaluationThatabnormalearningsgrowthisequaltothechangeinresidualearningsHowabnormalearningsgrowthvaluationprotectstheinvestorfrompayingforgrowthWhataPEGratiois6-3TheBigPictureforthisChapterTopriceearnings,onethinksofearningsgrowth:moregrowth,higherP/EBut:Bewareo

5、fpayingforgrowthOnlypayforgrowththataddsvalueGrowthisrisky:BewareofpayingforriskygrowthAbnormalearningsgrowthisthemetricthatprotectsfrompayingtoomuchforgrowth6-4TheConceptBehindtheP/ERatioPriceinnumeratorofP/EisbasedonexpectedfutureearningsEarningsindenominatoriscurrent(orforward)e

6、arningsP/Eisthusbasedonexpectedgrowthinearnings:fortrailingP/E,growthfromcurrentearningsonwardsforforwardP/E,growthfromone-year-aheadearningsonwardsBut……growthisrisky,sotheP/EratioalsoinvolvesadiscountforriskexpectedearninggrowthincreasestheP/EratioriskreducestheP/Eratio6-5Bewareof

7、PayingTooMuchforEarningsGrowthInvestmentcreatesgrowthbutdoesnotnecessarilyaddvalueEarningsgrowthcanbecreatedbytheaccountingWeneedavaluationmethodthatprotectsusfrompayingtoomuchforearningsgrowth6-6Reminder:ResidualEarningsValuationProtectsYouFromPayingTooMuchForEarningsEarningsfrom

8、newinvestmentischargedwith