财务报表分析与证券估值全套配套课件英文PPT中文PPT案例教学建议Chap015.ppt

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1、ChapterFifteenMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Chapter15Preparedby:StephenH.Penman–ColumbiaUniversityWithcontributionsbyNirYehuda–NorthwesternUniversityMingcherngDeng–UniversityofMinnesotaPeterD.EastonandGregoryA.Sommers–NotreDameandSouther

2、nMethodistUniversitiesLuisPalencia–UniversityofNavarra,IESEBusinessSchool15-2AnchoringontheFinancialStatements:SimpleForecastingandSimpleValuationWhatYouWillLearnfromthisChapterHowsimpleforecastsyieldsimplebutinsightfulvaluationsHowforecastsaredevelopedfromthecurrentfinancialstatements

3、HowsalesforecastsarecombinewithfinancialstatementinformationtoprovidesimpleforecastsWhensimpleforecastsandsimplevaluationsworkasreasonableapproximationsHowsimpleforecastingworksasananalysistoolinsensitivityanalysisHowsimplevaluationmodelsworkinreverseengineeringmodetochallengethemarket

4、priceHowsimplevaluationmodelsenhancescreeninganalysis15-3TheBigPictureforthisChapterThetenet:AnchorvaluationonwhatyouknowratherthanspeculationThefinancialstatements,appropriatelyformulatedandanalyzed,are“whatweknow”Therefore,anchoravaluationonwhatyouseeinthefinancialstatementsbeforeadd

5、ingspeculationThisChapter“SimpleValuation”NextChapter“Fullproformavaluations”+Value=15-4ASimpleValuationModelWecangettheingredientsfromthefinancialstatements:Date0itemsareinthefinancialstatementsDate1itemscanbeforecastedfromthefinancialstatementsGrowth,g,canbeforecastedfromthefinancial

6、statements15-5PPE,Inc.:TheFinancialStatementsRequiredreturnforoperations=10%Requiredreturnfordebt=4%15-6TheNo-growthForecast15-7TheNo-growthReOIValuation15-8TheNo-growthAOIGValuationConstantReOIimpliesAOIG=0ZeroAOIGimpliesanormalenterpriseP/EratioForPPEInc.15-9No-growthValuation:Nike,I

7、nc.15-10TheGrowthForecastReOI1=10.431–(0.10×74.4)=2.991=(0.1402–0.10)×74.4=2.991ForPPE,Inc.thecurrentcoreRNOA=9.8/69.9=14.02%15-11TheForecastedGrowthRateIfRNOA1=RNOA0ForPPE:g=74.4/69.9=1.064415-12TheGrowthValuation15-13TheGrowthValuationRestatedForPPEInc.,g=1.0644(6.44%growth)TheNOAm