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1、英文参考文献Fuzzyapproachestoenvironmentaldecisions:applicationtoairqualityBernardEAFisherabstractThispaperconsidersflexibleapproachestodecisionsdesignedtoimproveenvironmentalqualityhavingregardtouncertainty.Theperformanceofsimpleandcomplexmodels,forforecastingairqualityarereviewed,andbothtypesares
2、howntoinvolveconsiderableuncertaintyregardedastypicalofenvironmentalsystems.Thismeansthatdecisionsusuallydependoncombiningtwoormorequiteuncertainenvironmentalcriteria,anditisshownthatthiscanbeapproachedsystematicallyifafuzzylogicframeworkisadopted.Fuzzysetaggregationincludes,asspecialcases,ot
3、herdecision-makingframeworks,suchasmulti-criteriaanalysisandconventionalprobabilitybasedmethods.Examplesarepresentedofhowitcanbeappliedtosituationsinvolvingmodelsandusedtoincorporatebroaderfactorsinvolvingrisk,andsocio-economicconsiderations.1.TheproblemIdeallyenvironmentalmodelsshouldcontain
4、thebestknownscience,betestedagainstmeasurements,andthenusedforpredictionanddecision-makingiftheyaresupportedbythenecessaryinputdataandperformwellagainstmeasurements.Thishasledinrecentyearstothedevelopmentofmorecomplex,fundamentalmodels,inwhicheverypartoftheenvironmentalsystemisdescribedinasmu
5、chdetailaspossible,theso-called"reductionist"approach.Ifthedevelopmentinmodellingproducedbetterpredictionsthiswouldbethewaytoproceed-Fromexamplesinthefieldofairpollution,itisarguedinthispaperthatlimitationsinprocessdescription,andthelackofdetaileddataonconcentrations,depositionoremissionsetc.
6、,meanthatthisapproachhasnotproducedusefullybetterpredictions.Eventhemostadvancedmodelsarestillassociatedwithlargeuncertainties(Hunt,2000;FuntowiczandRavetz,2005;Saloranta,2001).Thealternativeapproachtoforecastingistoconsiderthedecisionthatislikelytobringenvironmentalimprovementsandtoconsiderm
7、odelswhichallowdecisionstobemade,so-called'fitforpurpose"models.Thesemodelsmayinvolvegreateruncertaintythanmorecomplexmodels,buttheyfacilitatemorereadilythetreatmentofuncertainty,throughsensitivityanalysis.Moreover,thedatarequirementstorunthe
