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1、英文参考文献Fuzzyapproachestoenvironmentaldecisions:applicationtoairqualityBernardE.A.FisherabstractThispaperconsidersflexibleapproachestodecisionsdesignedtoimproveenvironmentalqualityhavingregardtouncertainty.Theperformanceofsimpleandcomplexmodels,forfore
2、castingairqualityarereviewed,andbothtypesareshowntoinvolveconsiderableuncertaintyregardedastypicalofenvironmentalsystems.Thismeansthatdecisionsusuallydependoncombiningtwoormorequiteuncertainenvironmentalcriteria,anditisshownthatthiscanbeapproachedsys
3、tematicallyifafuzzylogicframeworkisadopted.Fuzzysetaggregationincludes,asspecialcases,otherdecision-makingframeworks,suchasmulti-criteriaanalysisandconventionalprobabilitybasedmethods.Examplesarepresentedofhowitcanbeappliedtosituationsinvolvingmodels
4、andusedtoincorporatebroaderfactorsinvolvingrisk,andsocio-economicconsiderations.1.TheproblemIdeallyenvironmentalmodelsshouldcontainthebestknownscience,betestedagainstmeasurements,andthenusedforpredictionanddecision-makingiftheyaresupportedbythenecess
5、aryinputdataandperformwellagainstmeasurements.Thishasledinrecentyearstothedevelopmentofmorecomplex,fundamentalmodels,inwhicheverypartoftheenvironmentalsystemisdescribedinasmuchdetailaspossible,theso-called‘reductionist’approach.Ifthedevelopmentinmode
6、llingproducedbetterpredictionsthiswouldbethewaytoproceed.Fromexamplesinthefieldofairpollution,itisarguedinthispaperthatlimitationsinprocessdescription,andthelackofdetaileddataonconcentrations,depositionoremissionsetc.,meanthatthisapproachhasnotproduc
7、edusefullybetterpredictions.Eventhemostadvancedmodelsarestillassociatedwithlargeuncertainties(Hunt,2000;FuntowiczandRavetz,2005;Saloranta,2001).Thealternativeapproachtoforecastingistoconsiderthedecisionthatislikelytobringenvironmentalimprovementsandt
8、oconsidermodelswhichallowdecisionstobemade,so-called‘fitforpurpose’models.Thesemodelsmayinvolvegreateruncertaintythanmorecomplexmodels,buttheyfacilitatemorereadilythetreatmentofuncertainty,throughsensitivityanalysis.Moreover,thedatarequirementstorunt
