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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、SingaporeSingaporeMarketStrategyPainmustbesharedStrategyFigure1:WeexpectSingapore'srealGDPtodeclineby3.0%in2020EResearchAnalysts16.0%14.0%14.5%GeraldWong,CFA656212303712.0%8.3%9.0%9.8%9.0%9.0%gerald.wong@credit-suisse.com10.0
3、%8.0%7.5%5.7%4.5%7.4%6.3%4.5%4.8%4.3%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%3.9%1.9%0.1%3.9%3.0%3.2%3.4%0.7%-2.0%-1.1%-4.0%1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020E-6.0%-2.2%-3.0%RealGDPGrowthSource:MTI,CEIC,
4、CreditSuisseestimatesEnteringadeeprecession.WeestimateSingapore'sGDPtodeclineby3.0%in2020,withimpactontheaviation,hospitalityandretailsectorsalreadyevident,whilemanufacturingcouldseesignificantweaknessin2Q20.Withongoingescalated'Circuitbreaker'measuresandlac
5、kofautomaticstabilisers,wedonotexpectthegovernmentsupportmeasuresworthS$60bntobeabletofullycushiontheeconomicimpact.Corporateearningsundersignificantpressure.Withreturnsata20-yearlowpriortotheCovid-19outbreak,weexpectmorecompaniestobeundergrowingstress.Morei
6、mportantly,weexpectlargelistedcorporatestobeunderpressureto‘sharesomeofthepain’toeasetheburdenonSMEsandhouseholds.Post-crisis,returnswilllikelybestructurallylowerduetotheneedtoaddressissuesarounddependenceonforeignworkers.Capitalrequirementswillbesignificant
7、.Corporatenetgearinghasrisento0.60xfrom0.15xduringtheGFC,whichwilldrivemorecapitalraising.CorporateactionisalsolikelytoaccelerateamongstTemasek-linkedcompanies.WhileliquiditymeasuresintroducedbyMAScouldhelpeasefundingneeds,relativelyhighcostofborrowingcouldl
8、imittake-up.Assuch,non-performingloansshouldspikewithrisingbusinessclosures.Downsideriskstoearningsanddividends.Weexpect2020earningstodeclineby21%inabase-casescenarioofatroughin2Q20andgradualrecoveryin2H20,whileEPScoulddeclineby39%inabear-casescenario.Thiswi
9、lldrivedownsideriskstodividends,especiallyforbanks,REITsandcompaniesreceivingstatesupport.Wepreferstockstradingclosetotroughvaluation(Singtel,Keppel),beneficiariesofrisingvolatility(SGX)andstruc
