新加坡市场策略：游客热情降温

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1、7June2019AsiaPacific/SingaporeEquityResearchStrategySingaporeMarketStrategyResearchAnalystsGeraldWong,CFA6562123037gerald.wong@credit-suisse.comLouisChua,CFA6562125721louis.chua@credit-suisse.comDannyChan60327232082danny.chan@credit-suisse.comSTRATEGYTouristpassioniscoolingFigure1:Weexpectt

2、ouristarrivalstofallto18.3mnin2019,belowSingaporeTourismBoardexpectationsof18.7-19.2mn20.025.0CSestimateof18.3mnbelowSTBforecastof18.7-19.2mn19.020.018.015.017.010.016.05.015.00.014.0-5.013.0-10.012.0-15.011.0-20.02010201120122013201420152016201720182019EVisitorarrivals(mn)CS2019EVisitorarr

3、ivals,YoY(%)-RHSSource:STB,CEIC,CreditSuisseestimates■Loweringtouristarrivalgrowthassumption.WeforecasttouristarrivalsinSingaporetofallby1%YoYto18.3mnin2019,belowSingaporeTourismBoard'sprojectionof1-4%increase.ThisisledbyaslowdowninarrivalsfromChina,IndonesiaandMalaysia,impactedbypoorconsum

4、ersentimentandcurrencyweaknessrelativetotheSingaporedollar.Inaddition,lossofmarketshareofChinesetouriststocountriessuchasVietnamandJapanpresentsfurtherdownsiderisks.■Touristspendingcouldbeevenweaker.Weexpecttouristspendingtodeclineevensharperashighernumberofdaytrippersandmulti-destinationvi

5、sitorsresultsinshortlengthofstay.Despitea6%YoYgrowthintouristarrivalsin2018,expenditureonshopping/accommodationfell13%YoY/6%YoY,asaveragelengthofstayfellfurtherto3.3days.RecentplanstoboostinvestmentsbyintegratedresortsandtorejuvenateOrchardRoadareunlikelytoreversethenear-termweakness,inourv

6、iew.■Cautiousontourism-relatedstocks.WedowngradeSATStoUNDERPERFORM(fromNeutral)aswebelieveitwillbedirectlyimpactedbythedeclineintouristarrivalvolumes.WealsodowngradeCDLHTtoNEUTRALasRevPARislikelytodisappointdespiteamoderationinsupplygrowth.OurTPforGentingSingaporeisreducedtoS$0.90(fromS$0.9

7、5)duetolowermassandnon-gamingrevenue.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsres