浑水做空瑞幸咖啡8.pdf

《浑水做空瑞幸咖啡8.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、LuckinCoffee:Fraud+FundamentallyBrokenBusinessExecutiveSummaryWhenLuckinCoffee(NASDAQ:LK)(“Luckin”orthe“Company”)wentpublicinMay2019,itwasafundamentallybrokenbusinessthatwasattemptingtoinstillthecultureofdrinkingcoffeeintoChineseconsumersthroughcut-throatdis

2、countsandfreegiveawaycoffee.RightafteritsUSD645millionIPO,theCompanyhadevolvedintoafraudbyfabricatingfinancialandoperatingnumbersstartingin3rdquarter2019.Itdeliveredasetofresultsthatshowcasedadramaticbusinessinflectionpointandsentitsstockpriceupover160%inali

3、ttleover2months.Notsurprisingly,itwastednotimetosuccessfullyraiseanotherUSD1.1billion(includingsecondaryplacement)inJanuary2020.Luckinknowsexactlywhatinvestorsarelookingfor,howtopositionitselfasagrowthstockwithafantasticstory,andwhatkeymetricstomanipulatetom

4、aximizeinvestorconfidence.Thisreportconsistsoftwoparts:thefraudandthefundamentallybrokenbusiness,whereweseparatelydemonstratehowLuckinfakeditsnumbersandwhyitsbusinessmodelisinherentlyflawed.PartOne:TheFraudSmokingGunEvidence#1:Numberofitemsperstoreperdaywasi

5、nflatedbyatleast69%in20193Qand88%in20194Q,supportedby11,260hoursofstoretrafficvideo.Wemobilized92full-timeand1,418part-timestaffonthegroundtorunsurveillanceandrecordstoretrafficfor981store-dayscovering100%oftheoperatinghours.Storeselectionwasbasedondistribut

6、ionbycityandlocationtype,thesameasLuckin’stotaldirectly-operatedstoreportfolio.SmokingGunEvidence#2:Luckin’s“Itemsperorder”hasdeclinedfrom1.38in20192Qto1.14in20194Q.SmokingGunEvidence#3:Wegathered25,843customerreceiptsandfoundthatLuckininflateditsnetsellingp

7、riceperitembyatleastRMB1.23or12.3%toartificiallysustainthebusinessmodel.Intherealcase,thestorelevellossishighat24.7%-28%.Excludingfreeproducts,actualsellingpricewas46%oflistedprice,insteadof55%claimedbymanagement.SmokingGunEvidence#4:Thirdpartymediatrackings

8、howedthatLuckinoverstatedits20193Qadvertisingexpensesbyover150%,especiallyitsspendingonFocusMedia.It’spossiblethatLuckinrecycleditsoverstatedadvertisingexpensebacktoinflaterevenueandstore-levelp