新冠疫情下迎接一个糟糕的不良贷款周期.docx

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1、ContentsSummaryofrating&PTchanges..........................................................4PIVOTALQUESTIONS...................................................................................7Q:AreChinabanks'earningsanddividendsatriskamidCOVID-19impacts?......................................

2、..............................................................................7PIVOTALQUESTIONS.................................................................................18Q:What'stheNIMoutlookforChinabanks?.................................................18PIVOTALQUESTIONS............

3、.....................................................................25Q:Istheoutlookforretailbankingmorenegativethancorporatebanking?..................................................................................................................25What’spricedin?...........................

4、.........................................................35BankofChina.....................................................................................................39PingAnBank......................................................................................................40China

5、MinshengBanking................................................................................41ChinaMinshengBanking-A..............................................................................56Figure1:SummaryofPTandratingrevisions–H&AsharesTickerRatingPricetargetPriceImpliedDividendEPS

6、growthP/BVratioP/EratioROAE(New)(Old)(New)(Old)(LC)upsideyield2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021EUBSH-sharecoveragePSBC1658.HKBuyBuy5.806.504.7123%5.0%-1.6%15.5%0.68x0.62x6.0x5.2x11.9%12.6%CCB0939.HKBuyBuy7.608.306.3021%5.6%0.8%4.2%0.62x0.57x5.3x5.1x12.1%11.6%ICBC1398.HKBuyBuy6.306.805.

7、2720%5.5%0.2%6.4%0.63x0.58x5.5x5.1x12.0%11.7%ABC1288.HKNeutralNeutral3.303.203.126%6.5%0.6%5.5%0.52x0.48x4.7x4.5x11.5%11.2%CQRCB3618.HKNeutralNeutral3.204.203.142%8.1%-12.8%9.6%0.34x0.31x3.5x3.2x10.0%10.1%BOC3988.HKNeutralBuy3.104.603.013%7.1%0.6%5