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1、13April2020EquityResearchAmericas
2、UnitedStatesUSRestaurantsAssessingAppetiteinPost-COVID-19WorldRestaurants
3、SectorForecastStateoftheIndustry:SSStrendsappeartovarywidelyacrossgeographies,brandsandResearchAnalystssegments.Basedonindustrydataandourconversations,QSRsareexperiencingSSSdecli
4、nesof30-40%inrecentweeksandfullservicechainsareseeingSSSdeclinesof60-LaurenSilberman80%.ThemajorityofsalesatQSRshaveshiftedtodrive-thru,digital/deliverysalesareup,2123252720breakfast&latenightareexperiencingthemostsignificantdeclines,weekdaysarelauren.silberman@credit-suisse.comperform
5、ingbetterthanweekends,QSRaveragechecksareup,occasionshaveshiftedtoDouglasEismandinner&familymeals,restaurantsappeartobereducingoperatinghours/streamlining2123258212menusandareaswithhighercasesofthevirusareexperiencingmoreseveredeclines.douglas.eisman@credit-suisse.comBasedontheNational
6、RestaurantAssociation,~15%ofrestaurantshaveclosedpermanentlyorareexpectedtoclosewithinthenextcoupleofweeks.FutureoftheIndustry–Demand&SupplyImbalance:Weexpecttheretobepent-updemandforrestaurants,partiallyoffsetbylingeringhealth-relatedconcerns&unknowneconomiceffects.Webelieverestaurant
7、sbestpositionedarethosethatappealtoyoungercohorts(lesscautious),havestrongoff-premisebusinesses(includingdigitalecosystems)andoffercompellingvalue.Onthesupplyside,webelieverestaurantsthatremainopen,continuetopayworkers,havestronguniteconomicsandleveragegovernmentassistancewillbebestpos
8、itionedtorampupoperationsandtakeadvantageofpent-updemand.Overall,weseechainsasbetterpositionedthanindependentsgivenaccesstoresourcesandmoreestablishedoff-premise&digitalinfrastructures,withopportunitiesformarketsharegainsoverthemediumtolong-termasrestaurantsupplycontracts.WefavorCMGgiv
9、enitsyoungerconsumerbase,holisticdigitalecosystem&investmentsinemployees.WelikeMCD’sdefensivepositioningandhealthyfranchiseebase.DPZ&PZZAshouldbenefitfromsharegainsgivenafragmentedpizzasegmentandshifttoat-homeconsumption.HealthofFranchiseeSystems:Weleverageddatafromfranchisedisclosur
