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1、1.MoonMicroisasmallmanufacturerofserversthatcurrentlybuildsallofitsproductinSantaClara,California.Asthemarketforservershasgrowndramatically,theSantaClaraplanthasreachedcapacityof10,000serversperyear.Moonisconsideringtwooptionstoincreaseitscapacity.Thefirstoptionistoadd10,000unitsofca
2、pacitytotheSantaClaraplantatanannualizedfixedcostof$10,000,000plus$500laborperserver.ThesecondoptionistohaveMolectron,anindependentassembler,manufactureserversforMoonatacostof$2,000foreachserver(excludingrawmaterialscost),rawmaterialscost$8,000perserver,andMoonsellseachserverfor$15,0
3、00.Moonmustmakethisdecisionforatwo-yeartimehorizon.Duringeachyear,demandforMoonservershasan80percentchanceofincreasing50percentfromtheyearbeforeanda20percentchanceofremainingthesameastheyearbefore.Molectron’spricesmaychangeaswell.Theyarefixedforthefirstyearbuthavea50percentchanceofin
4、creasing20percentinthesecondyearanda50percentchanceofremainingwheretheyare.UsingadecisiontreetodeterminewhetherMoonshouldaddcapacitytoitsSantaClaraplantorifitshouldoutsourcetoMolectron.Whataresomeotherfactorsthatwouldaffectthisdecisionthatwehavenotdiscussed.Assumethatadiscountfactori
5、s10percent.注意：Moon已有设备产能为10,000，对两种方案都是一样提供该产能，所以比较增量需求利润即可。OptionAYear2Revenue2=(20,000-10,000)*15,000*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*150,000*(0.16+0.16)+(10,000-10,000)*15,000*0.04Variablecost2=(20,000--10,000)*500*0.64+(15,000-10,000)*500*(0.16+0.16)+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.04Fixedcost2=10,00
6、0,000Totalcost2=Variablecost2+Totalcost2Profit2=Revenue2-Totalcost2Year1Revenue1=(15,000-10,000)*15,000*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*150,000*0.2Variablecost1=(15,000-10,000)*500*0.8+(10,000-10,000)*500*0.2Fixedcost1=10,000,000Totalcost1=Variablecost1+Totalcost1Profit1=Revenue1-Totalcost1BaseY
7、ear0Profit0=0OptionBYear2Revenue2=(22,500-10,000)*15,000*(0.32+0.32)+(15,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.08+0.08+0.08+0.08)+(10,000-10,000)*15,000*(0.02+0.02)Cost2=(22,500-10,000)*(2000+8000)*0.32+(22,500-10,000)*(2400+8000)*0.32+(15,000-10,000)*(2000+8000)*(0.08+0.08)+(15,000-10,000)*(2400+80
8、00)*(0.08+0.
