2004年10月份投资策略报告

《2004年10月份投资策略报告》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、2004年10月投资策略报告2004年10月份投资策略报告金元证券研究所2004年9月30日1金元证券研究所200409302004年10月投资策略报告目录1、证券市场运行环境·················································31.1宏观经济运行情况·········································31.2下半年经济指标预测·······································81.3证券市场环境评价··········

2、······························111.4影响市场的政策环境因素分析·······························122、重点行业研究····················································152.1煤炭行业···············································152.2交通运输业·············································202.3机场航空业··

3、···········································252.4有色金属行业···········································282.5钢铁行业···············································303、证券市场走势····················································333.1A股市场走势······································

4、·······334、投资策略························································364.1A股投资策略·············································362金元证券研究所200409302004年10月投资策略报告1.证券市场环境评价1.1宏观经济运行情况固定资产完成情况（单位：亿元）经历了7年月完成额同比％月份31.5％的强Dec-038025.3917.6烈反弹后，8月Jan-04份的固定资产投Feb-043287.

5、0353资又回落到了Mar-043771.4543.526.3％。这说明Apr-043988.5234.8宏观经济的紧张May-044390.218.2局势得到缓解，Jun-046406.7722.7后续政策将有所放松。Jul-045271.8331.5Aug-045070.226.32004年8月分行业投资额（单位：人民币亿元）1-8月累计1-8月累计增速比1-7月增速黑色金属开采和冶炼及压延加工业投资119146.3-2.9有色金属开采和冶炼及压延加工业投资37928.8-6.1非金属矿物制品业投资69151.6-4.

6、3固定资产完成情况分析800060CPI继续走600040高，维持在7月400020份的5.3％。粮食2000价格持续增长依00然是CPI上涨的Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04Jun-04Jul-04Aug-04主要原因。反映完成额同比增长％CPI的先导指标PPI继续高位运行，对CPI的影全国居民消费价格指数107响日益加强。而106且，油价高企，105继续成为推动104CPI上涨的因素。103我们预计，CPI102101的未来走势仍然100不容乐观。992003-102003-122004-022004-

7、042004-062004-08居民消费价格指数城市居民消费价格指数农村居民消费价格指数3金元证券研究所200409302004年10月投资策略报告工业品出场价格指数（2003-2004）11010810610410210098968月10月12月2月4月6月8月工业品价格指数生产资料价格指数生活资料价格指数工业增加值(2004年8月)比去年同期增长%指标名称单位累计本月累计本月工业增加值亿元33910.774544.4617.115.9其中：轻工业亿元11087.941469.0715.415.6重工业亿元22822.8

8、33075.3918.616.3其中：国有及国有控股企业亿元14563.021915.6513.912.8其中：集体企业亿元1818.24244.6610.49.7股份合作企业亿元645.1586.2813.813.3股份制企业亿元14782.231974.8516.915.7外商及港澳台投资亿元952