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1、第24卷第10期生态学报Vol.24,No.102004年10月ACTAECOLOGICASINICAOct.,2004中国历年生态足迹计算与发展可持续性评估1,231刘宇辉,彭希哲(11复旦大学人口所,上海200433;21上海师范大学地理系,上海200234)摘要:可持续发展的定量测度是可持续发展战略得以实施的前提条件。加拿大学者MathisWackernagel发展完善的生态足迹模型就是一种测量可持续性的方法。该方法通过计算支持特定区域人类社会所有消费活动所需要的土地(生态足迹)与该区域可提供的生物生产性土地(生态承载力)相比较来判
2、断区域发展的可持续性。简单介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念、研究进展、计算方法;对中国历年的生态足迹进行了实证研究,结果表明:从1962～2001年,中国人均生态承载力逐步下降,人均生态足迹则逐步上升,目前中国人均生态足迹已经超过人均生态承载力,生态赤字出现,并持续扩大,中国目前的发展处于一种强不可持续状态。关键词:中国;历年;生态足迹;生态承载力;生态盈余(赤字);可持续性评估TimeseriesofecologicalfootprintinChinabetween1962～2001:Calculationandassessmentofde
3、velopmentsustainability1,231LIUYu2Hui,PENGXi2Zhe(11InstituteofPopulationandDevelopment,FudanUniversityShanghai,200433,China;21GeographyDepartment,ShanghaiNormalUniversity,200234,China).ActaEcologicaSinica,2004,24(10):2257～2262.Abstract:Theecologicalfootprint(EF)modelhasbe
4、enintroducedtoChinaandhasattractedmuchattentionfromscholarsinrecentyears.Asamodel,ecologicalfootprintcanmeasuretheresourcerequirementsinregionalconsumptionactivities.Biologicalcapacitymeasureregionalresourcesupplies.Whenecologicalfootprintsurpassesthebiologicalcapacity,th
5、eregionwillbeinastateofunsustainabledevelopment.Thispapercalculatestheecologicalfootprintandbiologicalcapacitytoexploretheecosystemfluctuationsbroughtbythepopulationandeconomicgrowth.Thecalculationresultsshowthattherewasanobviousecologicalfootprint(percapita)increaseandbi
6、ologicalcapacity(percapita)decreaseinChinabetween1962～2001.Anecologicaldeficitfirstappearedaround1980andthencontinuesto2grow.In2001,theecologicalfootprint,biologicalcapacity,andecologicaldeficit(percapita)ofChinawas114891hm,22110532hm,014359hmrespectively.Theresourcesused
7、surpassedtheresourcesupply41%,andthedevelopmentatthisratewasunsustainable.TheincreaseofecologicalfootprintismostlyduetothegreatincreaseoffossilenergyconsumptionbroughtonChina'srapidindustrializationandurbanization.Whilethecroplandproportionofecologicalfootprintdecreasedfr
8、om57%in1962to2917%in2001,thefossilenergyproportionoftheecologicalfootprintgrewfrom23%in1962to471
