中国银行业2017上半年回顾：资产质量持续改善

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1、Chinabanks1H17resultsreview:assetqualityimprovementcontinues[exA-shares]Chinabanksreported1H17profitgrowthof~5%YoY(vs1%yoyin2H16)inastrongsetofresults.a)NIMrecoveredsequentiallyforbigbanksandcontractionstabilizedforsmallbanks.b)OPEXdeclined,thoughthisisunlikelytocontinue.c)Assetqualityimp

2、rovementcontinued,reducingcreditcosts.Somebanksraisedprovisionsasrevenuegrowthrecovers.CMB,BOC,andICBCbeatexpectations,whileMinshengandCRCBdisappointed.Weexpectpre-provisionalgrowthtostabilize.NIMsshouldbestablebarringpolicyratehikes,feeincomegrowthmayrecoverasnegativeimpactsfromregulator

3、ytighteningfactoredin,butpositiveimpactswerepartlyoffsetbyreboundingOPEX.Creditcostisakeyswingfactor.AfewkeyP&Ltrends:PPoPgrowthreboundedto+2%1H17(vs-2%2016),NIMcontraction(-8bpsHoH&-15bpsYoY)andslowdowninfeegrowth(-4%yoy)wasoffsetbyassetgrowth(IEA+11%yoyand6%HoH)anddecliningOPEX(-4%yoy)

4、.Creditcostscontracted26bpsyoyand20bpsHoH,leadingtoreboundingprofitsgrowthof5%yoy(Figures1-6).Improvingassetquality:NPLratio-6bpsHoH(vs+3bps2H16).Leadingindicatorsofassetquality,suchasspecial-mentionloan(SML)ratioandnewly-overdueloanratiodeclinedby17bpsand3bpsrespectivelyHoHin1H17,accele

5、ratingfromthetrendin2H16(Table4,Figure13).WecalculatetheNPLformationratiofellby18bpsHoHin1H17(vs+1bpsHoH2H16).Banks’creditcostsfellby20bpsHoHto1.05%.However,given1H17GDPsurprisedattheupside,improvingassetqualityiswithinexpectation.Someprogressonfinancialde-leveraging,butfarfromover:a)Who

6、lesalefundingasapercentageofliabilitiesfellby109bpsHoHto10%forBig4,and286bpsHoHto23%forotherbanks.b)ModeratereductioninNSAsandoff-balancesheetWMPsbymostbanks(Tables9-10).Minsheng&Industrialinterbankliabilites(includingNCDs)exceeded1/3ofliabilities.Banks'liquiditycoverageratiofellby3.6pptH

7、oH.Citic&Minshengsawassetcontraction,whichmaycontinueifmarketratesrise.DivergingtrendsbetweenBig4andothers:Big4ledinNIMrecovery,PPoPgrowth,assetqualityimprovement,anddepositgrowth.Big4bankshavelowerNSAandWMPexposure,andthuslowerregulatoryrisks.CMBandBOChadstrongpro