中国宏观经济10月展望

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1、ChinaEconomicPerspectivesChinabytheNumbers(September2017)OurguidetoChinesemonthlydataWhatthenumbersare,whattheymean,andtheoutlookgoingforward:What’snewAugustdatapointstomodestQ3slowdown,asretailsales,IP,andFAImissedexpectations.Butpropertysales,newstartsandinve

2、stmentreboundedfromJuly'sunexpectedweakness,backuptoQ2averagelevels,asrealimportsstayedresilient.Ongoingenvironmentalrulestighteningandsupply-sideconstraintsweighedonIPandFAI.Tighterlocalfiscalfinancingweighedoninfrastructureinvestmentasthemanufacturingsectorst

3、ayedcautiousoncapexspenddespiterecentprofit&pricingimprovements.CNYappreciatedagainstthebasket.TheCNYstrengthenedvisiblyagainstUSDsincemid-May.ThestrengthinAugust-earlySeptemberhasbeenmorethanexpectedandcannotbeexplainedbyUSDweaknessalone,likelybecauseof:strong

4、corporateUSDselling,morepositivemarketsentiment,andmorePBCtoleranceforCNYappreciationtopartlysignalgrowing2-wayflexibility.CNYhasretreatedlatelyafterreserverequirementonforwardFXpositionswasabolished.What'snextInflationontherise,butnoneedforratehike.PPI'sstreng

5、thcontinuestobedrivenmostlybymaterialpriceincreasesthankstostillfirmdemandandongoingsupplysidemeasures.Wenowsee2017PPIat5.5-6%,butCPIstillaround1.5-1.6%,givenlimitedtransmissionandlowfoodpriceinflation.CombinedwithrecentCNYstrength,thereremainsnoneedforanyratehi

6、ke.HigherPPIbodeswellforupstreamsectorsbutwilllikelyputmorepressureondownstreamsectormargins.ChinaontrackforamodestH2slowdown.PropertysaleshaveandcontinuetoweakenfromH1,butnewstartsandinvestmentstillplayingcatchupwithearliersalessoshouldnotslowvisiblytillQ12018

7、.Key(modest)headwindsfornextfewmonthswillcomefromongoing"supplyside"reformsdampeningFAIandIP,tighteninglocalfiscalfinancing/governmentdebtrulesweighingdowninfrastructureinvestment,andsofterpropertysales-relatedproduction/consumptionactivities.MaintainourviewforC

8、hina2017GDPat6.8%,softeningslightlyfromQ2's6.9%y/yto6.7%-6.8%inQ3.WeexpectUSDCNYtoberangeboundfortheremainderoftheyear,tradingat6.5-6.6atendyear.For2018,inarelativel