高盛-读懂中国经济数据-2017.7.11-148页

高盛-读懂中国经济数据-2017.7.11-148页

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大小:2.63 MB

页数:146页

时间:2017-12-08

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1、7/11/2017UnderstandingChina'sEconomicStatistics–SecondEditionhtps://reearh.g.cm)UnderstandingChina'sEconomicStatistics–SecondEditionTheauthorswouldliketothankJieMei,whoworkedasaninternintheAsiaeconomicsgroupin2016-17,forextensiveassistanceinupdatingandrevisingtextfromthepreviousedition.Bernadet

2、teChanprovidedextensiveeditorialandformattingassistance.FranklinChow,KennethHo,KingerLau,TianLu,TimothyMoe,HuiShan,PhilippaVizzone,andWangYicontributedhelpfulcommentsandcorrectionsforthisrevisededition.SectionI.IntroductionChina’seconomy,alreadythesecond-largestintheworld,continuestogrowingloba

3、limportance.MonitoringthecyclicalandstructuralchangesinChina’seconomy—andunderstandingChineseeconomicstatistics—isthereforemorecrucialthaneverforinvestorsandpolicymakers.TheGoldmanSachsEconomicsResearchteamhasinvestedconsiderableeffortinreviewingChinesestatistics,analyzingtheirrelationshipswith

4、thebusinesscycle,andidentifyingtheirlimitations.WehavealsodevelopedaseriesofproprietaryindicesformonitoringtheChineseeconomy—bothatthemacroeconomiclevel,suchastheGoldmanSachsCurrentActivityIndicator(CAI)andtheGoldmanSachsChinaFinancialConditionsIndex(FCI),andatthesectorlevel,forexample,ourtrack

5、ersofconsumptionandinvestmentactivity.This“littleredbook”isacomprehensiveupdateofouroriginalUnderstandingChinaEconomicStatistics,publishedin2006.Itissimilarinformattoourlong-establishedstatisticshandbooksfortheUS,UKandEurope,butcontainsseveraldistinctfeaturesowingtothechallengesofinterpretingCh

6、ina’sdataandpolicysettings.Ithasbeenexpandedconsiderablyfromtheoriginaledition,reflectingthe1/1487/11/2017UnderstandingChina'sEconomicStatistics–SecondEditionincreasedimportanceofChina’seconomyandeconomicdatafortherestoftheworldandforadiversesetofmarkets.Wehopeitwillserveasausefulreferencebothf

7、orclientsinvestinginChinadirectlyandforthosewhoneedtotracktheChineseeconomyduetoitsinfluenceonothermarkets.Notablechangestothisupdatededitioninclude:Alongerlistofindicators.Inparticular,wehaveexpandedthesectiononrealestate/propert

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