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1、2October2017BanksChinesebankTargetedRRRcut:Aneutralizingmove,ratherthaneasingPBOCannouncedtargetedRRRcutsthatarebasedoninclusivefinancingexposureOn30Sept2017,thePBOCannouncedtargetedRRRcutsforbanksthatmeetcertainrequirementsforlendingto“inclusivefinancing”areas.Inparticular:W
2、hatisinclusivefinancing?Itincludes:1)microandsmallbusinesses(MSEs)withloancreditamountlessthanRmb5m,2)individualoperationalloans,3)operationalloansforfarmers,4)startupsbyunemployedpersonsand5)registeredimpoverishedpeopleforconsumptionandstudypurposes.Whichbanksareeligible?The
3、rearetwolayersoftargetedcuts:1)bankswithinclusivefinancingexposurehigherthan1.5%ofloanswouldbeeligiblefor50bpsRRRcutfrombenchmarkratiosand2)bankswithanexposurehigherthan10%wouldbequalifiedforanadditional100bpsRRRcut.Inaddition,banksmustberatedasClassBoraboveinPBOC’sMPAassessme
4、ntforatleastthreequartersintheyearprior.Whenwillthistakeeffect?Thenewmeasureswillbeimplementedstarting2018.Figure1:SummaryoftargetedRRRcutsthistime%CurrentbenchmarkRRRIfinclusivefinancingIfinclusivefinancingrateexposure>1.5%butexposure>10%<10%Big-fivebanks17.0%16.5%15.5%Joint
5、-stockbanks,city/ruralcommercialbanks15.0%14.5%13.5%Source:DeutscheBank,PBOCIsthisaneasingmove?No,wedonotbelievemonetarypolicyhaschanged.Weratherseeitaneutralmovebythecentralbank.Therearethreeconsiderations:First,thistargetedcutwillbeimplementedthreemonthslater,whilepastRRRcut
6、smainlytookeffectimmediately.ItsuggestsPBOCisnotinahurrytoeaseliquidity.Instead,webelievethecentralbankaimstoneutralizethepotentialliquidityshockin1Q18,wheninterbankCDsareincludedinMPAframework.Ashighlightedinourreport,InclusionofinterbankCDsintoMPA,joint-stockbanks(JSBs)areli
7、kelytobesubjecttocontinuedfundingpressure.IncludinginterbankCDs,theinterbankliabilitiesofallJSBshavereachedthePage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong2October2017BanksChinesebankcap,i.e.33%oftotalliabilitiesasofend-2016.Thiscompareswith9%forbigbanksand25%forsmallerbanks(Figure2).Fromabott
8、om-upperspective,amongthe186bankswehavemodelled(includinglist
