imf2017年世界经济展望(10月品)

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1、WorldEconomicandFinancialSurveysWorldEconomicOutlookOctober2017SeekingSustainableGrowthShort-TermRecovery,Long-TermChallengesINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDCONTENTSAssumptionsandConventionsxFurtherInformationandDataxiPrefacexiiForewordxiiiExecutiveSummaryxvChapter1.GlobalProspectsandPolicies1RecentDe

2、velopmentsandProspects2TheForecast10Risks22PolicyPriorities25ScenarioBox1.ImpactofRecommendedPoliciesintheGroupofTwentyEconomies35Box1.1.LaborForceParticipationRatesinAdvancedEconomies37Box1.2.WilltheRevivalinCapitalFlowstoEmergingMarketsBeSustained?42Box1.3.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomyGr

3、owth:HeterogeneityandIncomeConvergenceovertheForecastHorizon45Box1.4.MacroeconomicChangesinEmergingMarketCommodityExporters50Box1.5.RemittancesandConsumptionSmoothing55SpecialFeature:CommodityMarketDevelopmentsandForecasts59References70Chapter2.RecentWageDynamicsinAdvancedEconomies:DriversandIm

4、plications73Introduction73WageDetermination––APrimer75AdvancedEconomyLaborMarkets:SurfaceHealingMasksDeeperChanges76DriversofRecentWageDynamics82SummaryandPolicyImplications88Box2.1.LaborMarketDynamicsbySkillLevel91Box2.2.WorkerContractsandNominalWageRigiditiesinEurope:Firm-LevelEvidence94Box2.

5、3.WageandEmploymentAdjustmentaftertheGlobalFinancialCrisis:Firm-LevelEvidence96Annex2.1.CountryCoverageandData98Annex2.2.EmpiricalMethodologies98Annex2.3.EmpiricalResults103References113Chapter3:TheEffectsofWeatherShocksonEconomicActivity:HowCanLow-IncomeCountriesCope?117Introduction117Temperat

6、ureandPrecipitation:HistoricalPatternsandProjections121TheMacroeconomicImpactofWeatherShocks125CopingwithWeatherShocksandClimateChange131Long-TermEffectsofTemperatureIncrease—AModel-BasedApproach137SummaryandPolicyImplications139InternationalMonetaryFund

7、October2017iiiWORLDECONOMICOUTLOOK:SEEKI

8、NGSUSTAINABLEGROWTH—SHORT-TERMRECOVERY,LONG-TERMCHALLENGESBox3.1.TheGrowthImpactofTropicalCyclones142Box3.2.TheRoleofPoliciesinCopingwithWeatherShocks:AModel-BasedAnalysis145Box3.3.StrategiesforCopingwithWeatherShocksandClimateCha