石油探明储量增长趋势预测方法及应用-论文.pdf

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1、中国石油勘探第19卷第4期CHINAPETROLEUMEXPLORATION2014年7月DOI：10．3969／j．issn．1672—7703．2014．04．010石油探明储量增长趋势预测方法及应用刘国全贾丽刘娟霞张绍辉(中国石油大港油田公司勘探开发研究院)摘要优选时窗开展统计分析，总结出某油公司控制储量升级的3个特点，即上报后5年是实现升级的时间界单块规模200Xl&t以上的控制储量是升级的主体；储层物性对控制储量升级具有重要影响。为系统评价控制储量升级潜力和能力，厘定了升级系数和升级率的概念，并建立了相应的评

2、价参数。以该油公司现有累计石油控制储量为基础，进行升级评价，对探明储量增长趋势进行了预测。着眼于探区勘探开发已进入中后期和资源有限的现实，探索运用龚帕兹、哈伯特等数学模型，对未来储量增长趋势和规模进行了预测，经验证，预测误差在7％以内。综合运用上述两种方法，明确了该油公司新增探明储量趋势和未来5年增储规模，为勘探开发战略决策提供了较可靠的依据，具有一定推广意义。关键词：升级评价法；数学模型法；升级系数；升级率；增长趋势中图分类号：TEl5文献标识码：APredictionMethodofProvenOilReserve

3、GrowthTrendandItsApplicationLiuGuoquan，JiaLi，LiuJuanxia，ZhangShaohui(Exploration＆DevelopmentResearchInstituteofPetroChinaDagangOilfieldCompany)Abstract：Selectingthetimewindowforstatisticalanalysis，thispapersummarizesthreecharacteristicsofacertainoilcompanyinupgr

4、adingitscontrolledreserves．Theupgradingtimeisusuallyfiveyearsfollowingsubmissionofthereserves．Thecontrolledreserveofasingleblockexceeding200x104tisthebackboneforupgrading．Thepetrophysicalpropertiesofareservoirexertanimportantinfluenceonupgradingofcontrolledreser

5、ve．Theconceptionsofupgradingcoeficientandupgradingratioaredefinedtosystematicallyevaluateupgradingpotentialandcapabilityofcontrolledreserve．Therelatedparametersarealsoestablishedforevaluation．Basedonthecompany’Scurrentaccumulatedcontrolledoilreserve，thispapereva

6、luatesupgradingandpredictstheprovenoilreservegrowthtrend．Withrespecttothefactthattheblockisinitsmiddleandlateexplorationanddevelopmentstagewithalimitedreserve．theGompertzmodelandHubbertmodelareusedtopredictthefuturereservegrowthtrendandthefuturequantityofreserve

7、s．Itisconfirmedthattheerrorislessthan7percent．Theabove—mentionedtwomethodsmakeclearthetrendforthecompany’Snewly—additionalprovenl'eserveandthequantityofadditionalreservesinthenextfiveyears，providingareliablebasisforformulationofexplorationanddevelopments仃砒egItha

8、sgreatsignificancetoputthemintowideapplication．KeyWords：methodforupgradingevaluation，mathematicalmodel，upgradingcoeficient，upgradingratio，growthtrend储量是油公司赖以生存的物质基础，根