麻省理工--发展经济学讲义.pdf

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1、1Agriculture:Theefficiencyoflanduse•Shareofagricultureinemploymentiscloseto50%fortheworldasawhole(50%inChina,57%inIndia).•Islandusedefficiently?1.0.1Farmsizeandproductivity:observedrela-tionship•Farmsizeproductivitydifferences:seetable.•Profit-Wealthrationandweathervariabil

2、ity(mon-soonoutsetisameasureoftheriskfacedbythefarmer):seefigure—TheProfit-Wealthratioisalwaysgreaterforsmallfarmers—Smallfarmers’profitsarehurtmuchmorebyuncertaintythanlargefarmers’1.0.2Whyisthissurprising?•Argumentsforincreasingreturns(theoppositere-lationship)—Technol

3、ogywithfixedcosts(tractors,etc..)—Largerfarmershavebetteraccesstocapital—Largerfarmershavebetteraccesstopoliti-callyallocatedinputs(evidencefromAfricainabookbyBates“MarketandstatesintropicalAfrica”).—Thebestfarmerwillhavemoreland...•Mitigatingfactors:—Rentalmarketsinfa

4、rmmachinery—Technologicalchangeinnotveryrapid.Savi-nessnotthatimportant.1.0.3Whatcouldbegoingon:Argumentsforde-creasingreturns•—Agencyproblems:largefarmsarecultivatedbyhiredlabor,whichhasfewerincentivetoworkhard.Smallfarmsareownercultivated.⇒Redistributinglandwillcrea

5、temoreownercultivatedlandwhichwillbemoreproductive.—Butwhycannottheownerofthelandnotgivetherightincentivetothefarmers?1.0.4Differentpotentialexplanationsfortheob-servedinverseproductivityrelationship:•Differencesinlandquality•Differencesinfarmercharacteristics•IncentiveP

6、roblemsProblemwiththeobservedrelationship:allofthiscouldbegoingon...Howcanweseparatethesedif-ferenteffects.1.0.5Evidence:StudybyBiswangerandRosen-zweig•UsingICRISATdata:verydetailedpanel(repeatedobservationforeveryhousehold)datafromIndia.•Someindividualscultivatebothan

7、owner-operatedplotandarentedplot.•BiswangerandRosenzweigcomparetheinputstheyapplyontheirownplotandtherentedplots,andtheoverallproductivityofbothplots.Πij=α+βRij+ηi+υij,•whereΠijisfarmer’sioutcome(profit,invest-ment)onplotj,andRijindicatewhethertheplotisrented.ηiistheun

8、oberved(butfixed)characteristicsofthefarmers(riskaversion,qual-ity,etc...).WethinkthatηiandRijmaybecorrelated,but,foraminute,