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1、ATutorialontheMcKinseyModelforValuationofCompaniesL.PeterJennergren∗Fourthrevision,August26,2002SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinBusinessAdministrationNo.1998:1AbstractAllstepsoftheMcKinseymodelareoutlined.Essentialstepsare:calculationoffreecashflow,forecastingoffutureaccountingdata(profitandlossacc
2、ountsandbalancesheets),anddiscountingoffreecashflow.ThereisparticularemphasisonforecastingthosebalancesheetitemswhichrelatetoProperty,Plant,andEquip-ment.Thereisanexemplifyingvaluationincluded(ofacompanycalledMcKay),asanillustration.Keywords:Valuation,freecashflow,discounting,accountingdataJEL
3、classification:G31,M41,C60∗StockholmSchoolofEconomics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.TheauthorisindebtedtoJoakimLevin,PerOlsson,andKenthSkogsvikfordiscussionsandcomments.11IntroductionThistutorialexplainsallthestepsoftheMcKinseyvaluationmodel,alsoreferredtoasthediscountedcashflowmodelanddescr
4、ibedinTomCopeland,TimKoller,andJackMurrin:Valuation:MeasuringandManagingtheValueofCompanies(Wiley,NewYork;1sted.1990,2nded.1994,3rded.2000).Thepurposeistoenablethereadertosetupacompletevaluationmodelofhis/herown,atleastforacompanywithasimplestructure(e.g.,acompanythatdoesnotconsistofseveralb
5、usinessunitsandisnotinvolvedinextensiveforeignoperations).Thediscussionproceedsbymeansofanextendedvaluationexample.ThecompanythatissubjecttothevaluationexerciseistheMcKaycompany.TheMcKayexampleinthistutorialissomewhatsimilartothePrestonexample(con-cerningatruckingcompany)inCopelandetal.1990,
6、Copelandetal.1994.However,certainsimplificationshavebeenmade,foreasierunderstandingofthemodel.Inpar-ticular,thecapitalstructureofMcKayiscomposedonlyofequityanddebt(i.e.,noconvertiblebonds,etc.).ThepurposeoftheMcKayexampleismerelytopresentallessentialaspectsoftheMcKinseymodelassimplyaspossible
7、.SomeofthehistoricalincomestatementandbalancesheetdatahavebeentakenfromthePrestonexample.However,theforecastedincomestatementsandbalancesheetsaretotallydifferentfromPreston’s.Allmonetaryunitsareunspecifiedinthistutorial(inthePrestonexampleinCopelande
