私人投资在公共交通中的机会_麦肯锡.pdf

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1、SergeBlochPrivate-investmentopportunitiesinpublictransportBenjaminCheathamandWalterOblinPublic-privatepartnershipsrepresentasignificantopportunityforprivateinvestors—butposeworrisomerisksaswell.OpportunitiesfortheprivatesectortoThepipelineofpublic-transportprojectsinvestinp

2、ublic-transportationinfrastructurerequiringprivatecapital,asMcKinseythroughpublic-privatepartnershipsareresearchshows,includeseverythingfromPA2007likelytobeworthmorethan$330billionnewroadandbridgeconstructionPrivatepartnershipfrom2005to2010,acceleratingagrowthinGermanytothe

3、expansionofportsintrendthatbeganinthemid-1990s.1ButEasternEuropeandtheextensionofExhibit1of3insomecountriesweakpoliticalcommit-urbantransitsystemsacrossAsia.WhileGlance:Thebiggestpublic-privatepartnershipinvestmentopportunitiesareinrailandroads.ment,alackofappropriateregula

4、torytheplannedprojectscoverallcontinentsExhibittitle:Thepipelinesafeguards,andpoorprojectgovernanceandmodesoftransportation,thebig-poseworrisomerisksforinvestors.gestinvestmentopportunitiesareintheThepipelineProjectedvolumeofplannedinvestmentsinpublic-transportation

5、infrastructureforselectedcountries,2005–20101Totalinvestments,%Public-private-partnershipPublic-private-partnershipinvestments,$billion2investmentsas%oftotal100%=$3trillionTotal=$330billion11%ofallplannedinvestmentsAirportsSeaportsRail1602373Roads1457Rail23Seaports191067Roa

6、dsAirports66GlobaltotalextrapolatedfromcountrydataweightedbyGDP;forAustralia,Brazil,China,France,Germany,India,Italy,Japan,Portugal,Russia,SouthKorea,Thailand,UnitedKingdom,andUnitedStates;breakdownbytransportationmodenotavailableforAustraliaandPortugal.Estimatedvalueofre

7、quiredprivateinvestmentinpubliclyownedinfrastructure.Source:Dealogic;McKinseyanalysis2TheMcKinseyQuarterlyWebexclusive,April2007UnitedStates,China,theUnitedKingdom,thecombinationofgrowth,predictableandSouthKorea.Greenfieldroadandcashflows,andincomestreamsuncorre-railproject

8、saccountforthelion’sshareoflatedwithpublic-equitymarkets.Theplannedprojects(Exhibi