图解中国宏观经济

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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEconomicsSpecialReportChinaMacroinCharts(CMiC)TherisktoourH2growthoutlookhasshiftedtotheupside.HighfrequencydatasuggestslandsupplyandauctionsremainedhotinJuly.AsweChinaMacroinCharts(CMiC)ishighlightedinthelastissueofCMiC,thestronglandsaleswillleadtoaacomprehensivechartp

2、ackpositivefiscalshockinH2.Consistentwiththisresumedboominthethatcoversfourbroadthemes:property/landmarket,financialleverageroseinJuneafterdroppinginearlier(1)economicactivitiesandpricemonths.Meanwhile,capitaloutflowsseemtohavepickedup.development;(2)monetaryandThelandmarketcontinuestoboominJuly

3、capitalmarketdevelopment;(3)trade,capitalflows,andRMBHighfrequencydataindicatebothlandsupplyandauctionsremainedstronginexchangerate;and(4)fiscalJuly.Thevolumeoflandsupplysurgedby15.6%yoy3mmainJuly,upfromdevelopment.9.7%inJuneand-4.6%inMay(FC1).ThevalueofaverageweeklylandauctionsrosetoRMB162.7bni

4、nJulyfrom155.2bninJuneand92.1bninMayItnotonlyhighlightskeymacro(FC2).Landauctionpremiumsuggeststhemostpopularlandmarketsareineconomicdevelopmentsinthetoptier2andsatellitetier3cities(FC3).Fordefinitionofauctionpremiumandmonth,butalsoprovidestheclassificationofcitytierspleaserefertoourreportsChina

5、’spropertyregularupdatesonin-depthbubbleandChinapropertybubbleseries:Updateontier-3cities.researchinourpreviousThemarketconsensusexpectsChina’sgrowthtoslowslightlyinH2.Thathaspublications.alsobeenourbaselineforecast,butweseerisingrisksontheupside.Withthelandmarketthisstrong,thefiscalrevenueinH2w

6、illstrengthenandsupportinfrastructurespending.Therisinglandpriceswillalsopushuppropertypricesparticularlyinsometier3cities.Thewealtheffectwillhelpdiscretionaryconsumption.TheboominglandmarketispositivefortheeconomyinH2butposesmacrorisksinthenextfewyears.Webelievethepropertybubbleisdrivenbyliquid

7、ityandcreditratherthanproductivitygrowth.TheChinesegovernmentalsomentionedtheriskofpropertybubbleinthelatestPolitburomeetingonJuly24.Itwouldbechallengingtomanagetheriskinthissectorin2018,tobalancethetradeoffbetweengrowthandf