高盛房地产行业研究报告2008年3月28日

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1、March25,2008China:RealEstateDevelopersMarch25,2008China:RealEstateDevelopersEyeingpotentialindustryconsolidatorsStrongexecutionandbalancesheet–wellpositionedChina’stwolargestlisteddevelopers,Vanke(000002.SZ/200002.SZ,Neutral)UpcomingeventsandCOLI(0688.HK,Buy),reportedtheir2007annualre

2、sultslastweek,whichMarch26:KWGannualresultsannouncementwerebroadlyinlinewithourandmarketexpectations.Inourview,bothMarch27:Sino-Oceanannualresultsannouncementcompaniesdemonstratedstrongexecutionandskillfulcashflowmanagementduringtheiraggressivegeographicandvolumeexpansionin2007.March2

3、8:ChinaResourcelandannualresultsannouncementApril18:AgileannualresultsannouncementNear-termheadwinds–opportunityforindustryleadersBothcompaniesindicatedtherecentpropertymarketweaknesshashadaApril20:Greentownannualresultsannouncementlimitedimpactontheirprojectsalesasshownbytheirytdsale

4、s;inaddition,April21:ShimaoPropertyannualresultsannouncementbothcompaniessaidthattheirfundingneedsarestillwellsupportedbybanks.Theyremainoptimisticaboutlong-termpropertypricetrendsinRelatedresearchChinaandbelievethepresentcorrectionisrationalandhealthy.Theyfurtherbelievegovernmentcred

5、ittighteningwillforceoutsomeoverlyleveragedFeb25:Demandheadwindstopersist;beselective–ratingsandTPchangesdevelopersfromtheindustrythathavepoorexecution,whichcouldhelpthemincreasemarketshareandsolidifytheirleadingpositions.Inaddition,Sectorsharepricediscounttoexistinglandbankbothdevelo

6、persarepositiveaboutthecentralgovernment’splantoaccelerate‘08ENAVtheestablishmentofaneconomichousingsysteminChinaandexpectless140%policyinterventionintheprivatesectoroncethesystemisfullyinplace.120%100%Thesector(HKlisted)marketcapweighted80%averagepremiumtoNAVis22%Positiveimplications

7、forthesector60%Weexpectsimilarlypositivenewsflowwhenremaininglisteddevelopers40%20%announcetheirresults,including:(1)significantyoyASPincreaseand0%Dec-Feb-Apr-Jun-Aug-Oct-Dec-Feb-Apr-Jun-Aug-Oct-Dec-Feb-marginexpansion;(2)higher2008revenuelock-inratioasof1Q08yoy(for-20%050606060606060

8、70707