Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲.doc

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1、附件九：Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲主要竞争对手业绩不佳，99年1~3季度软件销售额增长率（同比上年）如下：99年第一季度99年第二季度99年第三季度Oracle5%28%11%PeopleSoft-44%-61%-67%SAP-8%-15%-26%竞争对手业绩不佳的主要原因是：•向e-business方向转变太慢•销售队伍严重流失•在客户关系管理领域（CRM）落后•处在产品转型阶段风险大•分析家们对它们近期前景亦不看好（详细内容请参阅下面文章）---------------------------------------------BothSAPandPSFTmadedisa

2、ppointingpre-announcementslastweekindicatingtheirresultsforQ3wouldbeweakerthananalystsexpected.Finalresultsforbothcompanieswerereleasewithinthepasttwodays.InSAPreportedfinalQ3numbersinlinewithpre-announcedresultsof(7%)totalrevenuegrowthand(26%)purelicensegrowth.Analystagreedtherevisionsweresig

3、nificantandthepotentialforfurtherdownsideisgreaterthanthelikelihoodofanyupsideinthenear-term.TheUS-basedbusinesscontinuestostruggle,withmoderateimprovementintheAsia/Pacificregion.Theprimarysurpriseforthequartercamefromhigher-than-expectedoperatingexpensesasSAPcontinuestoinvestheavilyinR&Dandma

4、rketingtosupportitsnewlylaunched"internetstrategy".Averagerevenuepernewsalefellsignificantlyasaresultofincreasedmid-marketsales,incrementalsalestotheinstalledbase,lowerpricedadd-ons,andmoreprospectsbuyinginsmallerchunks.TheoverwhelmingconsensusamongtheanalystsforSAPisanenvironmentcharacterized

5、byanumberofchallenges,includingatoughmacroeconomicsituation,continuedsalesforceattrition(especiallyintheU.S.),andacomplicatedandlatetransitioninanefforttobecomeaninternet-enabledback-andfront-officeapplicationprovider.Furthermore,analystsexpressedconcernwiththefundamentaltrendofSAP'sdecreasing

6、high-marginlicenserevenuecoupledwiththeirincreasinglow-marginconsultingrevenue.Theconsensusfollowingmanagement'scommentswaspredominantlycharacterizedascautiouslyuncertain,withnoclearlyavailablecatalysttogeneratenear-terminterestinthestock.PSFT'sreportedQ3resultswereinlinewiththerecentdownwardl

7、yrevisedguidancegivenintheCompany'sOctober11thpre-release.Licenserevenueforthequarterwasdown67%yearoveryear,withmanagementattributingtheshortfalltothecontinuedsoftdemandforPSFT'scoreback-officeapplications,especiallyintheU.S.marketplace