全球金融危机对亚洲影响globalrecessiona.ppt

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1、GlobalRecessionandItsImpactontheAsianEconomyDr.BernardoM.VillegasNovember2008BlackThursday1929StockMarketCrashPassiveFederalReserveSystemIgnoranceofKeynesianPumpPrimingPanicintheBankingSectorUnemploymentRateof25%CompleteDominanceoftheUSEconomyintheWorldWorldFinancialMark

2、etIlliquidBlackMonday2008RealEstateBubbleProactiveFederalReserveSystemUSGovernmentPumpPrimingNoPanicintheBankingSectorNoCrashintheStockMarketUnemploymentRateManageableCountervailingPowerofEmergingMarketsLiquidityofSovereignFundsMassiveinterventionofEuropeangovernmentsGro

3、wthRatesofMajorEconomiesF–forecastsSource:WorldEconomicOutlook,IMF,Oct2008TraditionalEnginesofGrowthWorldGrowth(GDPGrowthRates)F–forecastsSource:WorldEconomicOutlook,IMF,Oct2008TraditionalEnginesofGrowthGlobalGrowthSlowdownFinancialmeltdownintheU.S.HighratesofinflationTi

4、ghtcreditdespitelowerinterestrateHighalbeitmoderatingfoodandfuelpricesSlowdownintheEUandJapanTheU.S.twin(fiscalandtrade)deficitscontinuetocauseconcernThreatstoWorldGrowthU.S.Economy:StillnoendtofinancialturmoilHugelossesinthefinancialsectorStilluncertainresultsofU.S.gove

5、rnmentbailoutsoffailingbanksPreviouslyrobustprivateconsumptionspendinghasbeendepressedbytheslumpinthehousingmarketRealGDPgrowthtofallfrom2.0%in2007to1.6%orlowerin2008EuroAreaEconomyActivityinWesternEuropegatheredmomentumin2006.GDPgrowthintheEuroareareached2.8%,doubleitsp

6、acein2005Slowingofgrowthin2008to1.3%from2.6%in2007FallinghousinginvestmentsGrowthshouldremainrelativelystrongerinGermanysustainedbygoodexportperformanceinthefaceofweakerconsumerdemandTheslowdownwillreflectanuptickinunemploymentintheEuroarea,especiallyinSpainJapaneseEcono

7、myPoliticalinstabilitycausedbysuccessiveresignationsoftwoPrimeMinistersDespiteastrongerthanexpectedGDPoutturninthefirstquarterof2008,Japan’seconomicoutlookisweakfor2008and2009.TheyenweakenedagainsttheU.S.dollarinJunebutmaystrengthenifU.S.economycontinuestobetroubledbyfin

8、ancialcrisis.Consumerpriceswillrisein2008ReservesmaybeusedtohelpailingbanksintheAsianregionWorld’sLarge