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1、JournalofEconomicPerspectivesÐVolume15,Number1ÐWinter2001ÐPages125±144TheImpactofNAFTAontheUnitedStatesMaryE.Bur®sher,ShermanRobinsonandKarenThierfelderheU.S.CongressapprovedtheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA)afteranintensepoliticaldebate.OpponentsvoicedanumberofTconcerns,focu
2、singontheimpactoftheagreementonU.S.labormarkets.Oftentheseargumentstookonamercantilisttone,withNAFTAopponentsargu-ingthatimportsfromMexicoÐaccompaniedbysurgingcapital¯owstoMexicoÐwoulddestroyjobsintheUnitedStates.OtherconcernsweremoresubtleandrelatedtotheeffecttradeliberalizationinM
3、exicanagriculturewouldhaveonlabormarkettransitionsinMexicoandunskilledlaboremigrationtotheUnitedStates.Forexample,therewasconcernthatMexico'straditionalanti-povertypoliciesforrurallabor,whichaccountedforapproximately25percentofthelaborforceintheearly1990s,werepartiallysupportedbytra
4、derestrictions.Theanticipatedexpan-sionofU.S.grainexportstoMexicounderNAFTAraisedconcernsthatMexico'srurallabormarketwouldcollapse,leadingtoasurgeofmigrationofunskilledworkerstotheUnitedStates.Ontheotherside,NAFTAsupportersarguedthattradeliberalizationwouldcreategainsfromincreasedtr
5、adebasedoncomparativeadvantage.TheypointedoutthatcheaperimportsfromMexicohelpedU.S.consumers(inpurchasesof®nalgoods)andproducers(inpurchasesofintermediategoods).Inthelongrun,asMexico'seconomygrewanddemandedmoregoodsandservices,therewouldbeanexpandingmarketforU.S.exports.Furthermore,
6、theyarguedthattheagree-mentwouldhavearelativelysmallimpactontheU.S.economysinceMexicoaccountedforasmallshareofU.S.tradeandtheU.S.averagetariffsagainstMexicoyMaryE.Bur®sherisaSeniorEconomist,EconomicResearchService,U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,Washington,D.C.ShermanRobinsonisDirector,
7、TradeandMacroeconomicsDivision,InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),Washington,D.C.KarenThierfelderisAssociateProfessorofEconomics,U.S.NavalAcademy,Annapolis,Maryland.126JournalofEconomicPerspectiveswerealreadylow.LikemanyNAFTAopponents,supportersalsooftenreliedonmercanti
8、listargumentsthatex
