汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究.pdf

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1、JournalofEngineeringGeology工程地质学报1004-9665／2012／20(1)一0007-08汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究冰朱静常鸣丁军齐信(成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室成都610059)摘要汶川地震发生后，灾区暴雨泥石流活动进入一个新的活跃期。根据对：lLJiI震区2008年9月2413暴雨泥石流调查，泥石流流域中地震诱发大量滑坡导致松散物源巨大，泥石流过程的洪峰流量比通常的要大数倍，应用以往泥石流危险范围预测模型进行计算的结果与实际的误差较大。因此，需要建立适用于强震区的泥石流危险范围预测方法。本文以9．24；IkJl

2、l暴雨泥石流为典型实例，结合野外调查，利用震后高分辨航空图像和9．24暴雨后SPOT5图像分别提取泥石流发生前流域中滑坡物源储量及发生后形成的堆积扇特征数据，应用多元回归方法建立了汶川震区泥石流危险范围预测模型，该方法可用于估算泥石流最大堆积距离和堆积宽度。验证和应用结果表明：该模型适用于强震区泥石流危险范围的预测，模型方法可为震区重建中安全地段选择和未来地震区风险管理提供重要依据。关键词泥石流危险范围条件因子预测模型汶川地震中图分类号：P642．23文献标识码：APREDICTIoNFoRHAZARDZoNESoFRAINSToRMINDUCEDDEBRISFLoWSINTHE

3、WENCHUANEARTHQUAKEEPICENTERSZHUJingCHANGMingDINGJunQIXin(StateKeyLaboratoryofGeohazardPrevention，ChengduUniversityofTechnology，Chengdu610059)AbstractTherainstorminduceddebrisflowshaveenteredanewactiveperiodaftertheWenchuanEarthquake．Debrisflowshavehugeenergytodrainalargeamountofsedimentsandth

4、eirpeakdischargeshaveseveraltimesofthenormalevents．Suchresultsarebasedonfieldobservationoftherainstorminduceddebrisflowson24September2008intheBeichuanepicenterareas．Thisphenomenonisduetothehugeloosematerialsofearthquakeinducedlandslidesinthedebrisflowwatershed．Therefore，ithasobviouserrorsifth

5、eexistingmodelsareappliedtoestimatethehazardouszonesofdebrisflowsintheepicenterareas．Inthisway，itneedstoestablishanappropriatemodeltopredictpossiblehazardouszonesofdebrisflowsintheWenchuanEarthquakeepicenter．Thisstudyselectsthe9．24rainstorminduceddebrisflowsasatypicalcase．Itusesthehighresolut

6、ionaerialphotographandSPOT5imagestoextractasetofdataoflandslidevolumeindebrisflowdrainagebasinandalsogeometricaldimensionofdepositionalfans．Applyingthemultivariateregressionanalysis，amathematicalmodelisestablishedtoestimatethemaximumrunoutdistanceanddepositionalwidth．Thevalidationandapplicati

7、onshowthatthenewmodelissuitableforpre—dictingdebrisflowhazardouszonesintheWenchuanEarthquakeareas．Theintentofthestudywillhelpfuturedeci—sionmakersintheselectionofsafesitesduringtherehabilitationprocessandalsobeusedasanimportantbasisfor{收稿日期：2