Structural Change Daron Acemoglu 经济增长导论教学教案教材.pdf

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1、AdvancedEconomicGrowth:Lecture19:StructuralChangeDaronAcemogluMITNovermber12,2007DaronAcemoglu(MIT)AdvancedGrowthLecture19Novermber12,20071/77IntroductionChangesincompositionofemploymentandproductionareimportantpartofprocessofdevelopment.IShiftofemploy

2、mentandproductionfromagriculturetomanufacturing,andthenfrommanufacturingtoservices.Willfocusondemand-sideandsupply-sidereasonsofstructuralchange.Emphasizehowstructuralchangescanbereconciledwithbalancedgrowth.Alsopresentasimplemodelofindustrialization:I

3、Pre-industrialagriculturalproductivitymaybeakeydeterminantofindustrializationandtakeo¤.DaronAcemoglu(MIT)AdvancedGrowthLecture19Novermber12,20072/77Non-BalancedGrowth:TheDemandSideIMajorchangesinstructureofproductioninUSeconomyoverpast150years(seeFigur

4、e).Consumptionsharestrendssimilar,thoughconsumptionofagriculturalproductsstillsubstantialbecauseofchangesinrelativepricesandproductivities(andbecauseofimportsofagriculturalgoods).ChangesinBritisheconomytowardsendof18thcenturyalsoconsistentwithUSpattern

5、s.SimilarpatternspresentinallOECDeconomies.Someless-developedeconomiesstilllargelyagriculturalbuttrendtowardssmallershareofagriculture.Kongsamut,RebeloandXie(2001):refertothesechangesasKuznetsfactsandprovidemodeltoreconcilewithKaldorfacts(relativeconst

6、ancyoffactorsharesandinterestrate).DaronAcemoglu(MIT)AdvancedGrowthLecture19Novermber12,20073/7718.se6.rahStne4.myolpmE2.018001850190019502000YearAgricultureManufacturingServicesFigure:TheshareofUSemploymentinagriculture,manufacturingandservices,1800-2

7、000.DaronAcemoglu(MIT)AdvancedGrowthLecture19Novermber12,20074/77Non-BalancedGrowth:TheDemandSideIIFigurepaintsapicturewithsigni…cantnon-balancedcomponent.ModelsthatdepartfromKaldorfactsoverearlystagesofdevelopmentprocessmightbeuseful.Butchangesincompo

8、sitionofemploymentandproductionarepresenteveninrelativelyadvancedeconomies.StartwithKongsamut,RebeloandXie:certaindegreeofnon-balancedgrowthatsectorallevel,butKaldorfactsofaggregatebalancedgrowth.Engel’slaw:asahousehold’sincomeincreases