基于ARMA模型的伊通河桥监测数据建模与可靠度分析.pdf

《基于ARMA模型的伊通河桥监测数据建模与可靠度分析.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、⺅༛ᆖս䇪᮷ะӄARMA⁗ශⲺՀ䙐⋩ẛⴇ⎁ᮦᦤᔰ⁗фਥ䶖ᓜ࠼᷆HEALTHMONITORINGDATAMODELINGANDRELIABILITYANALYSISFORYITONGRIVERBRIDGEBASEDONARMAMODEL䎥ঃ૾ቊ┞ᐛѐཝᆜ2012ᒤ7ᴸഭ޵മҖ࠶㊫ਧ˖TU375.4ᆖṑԓ⸱˖10213ഭ䱵മҖ࠶㊫ਧ˖624ᇶ㓗˖ޜᔰᐕᆖ⺅༛ᆖս䇪᮷ะӄARMA⁗ශⲺՀ䙐⋩ẛⴇ⎁ᮦᦤᔰ⁗фਥ䶖ᓜ࠼᷆⺋༡⹊ガ⭕䎥ঃሲᐾ੅བྷࡊᮉᦸ⭩䈭ᆜփᐕᆖ⺅༛ᆜ〇㔃ᶴᐕ〻ᡶ൞ঋփ൏ᵘᐕ〻ᆖ䲒ㆊ䗟ᰛᵕ2012ᒤ7ᴸᦾҾᆜփঋփ૸ቄ┘ᐕъབྷᆖClassifiedIndex:T

2、U375.4U.D.C:624DissertationfortheMaster’sDegreeinEngineeringHEALTHMONITORINGDATAMODELINGANDRELIABILITYANALYSISFORYITONGRIVERBRIDGEBASEDONARMAMODELCandidateφZhaoZhuoSupervisorφProf.LuDagangAcademicDegreeAppliedforφMasterofEngineeringSpecialityφStructuralEngineeringAffiliationφSchoolofCi

3、vilEngineeringDateofDefenceφJuly,2012Degree-Conferring-InstitutionφHarbinInstituteofTechnology૸ቄ┘ᐕъབྷᆖᐕᆖ⺅༛ᆖս䇪᮷᪎㾷20ц㓚80ᒤԓԕᶕˈᡁഭ㓿⍾伎䙏ਁኅˈẕằᔪ䇮һъҏਆᗇҶᐘབྷⲴᡀቡDŽ਼ᰦˈᡁഭⲴẕằᐕ〻ҏ䶒Ѥ⵰оц⭼кަԆՇཊഭᇦ਼ṧⲴẕằһ᭵䰞仈DŽѪ↔ˈഭ޵ཆнቁᐢᔪᡆ൘ᔪⲴẕằᐢᆹ㻵Ҷн਼㿴⁑Ⲵڕᓧⴁ⍻㌫㔏DŽ㠣Ӻˈẕằڕᓧⴁ⍻㌫㔏Ⲵᔪ・ᢰᵟᐢ㓿䎻Ҿᆼழˈ㓿䗷30ᒤᐖਣⲴⴁ⍻ˈ〟㍟Ҷབྷ䟿Ⲵⴁ⍻ᮠᦞˈྲօ༴⨶䘉Ӌᮠᦞ⑀⑀ᡀѪ⹄ウ✝⛩DŽⴁ⍻ᮠᦞⲴᔪ⁑࠶᷀⨶䇪

4、ቊᵚਁኅᆼழˈྲօ↓⺞ǃ৺ᰦൠ࠶᷀༴⨶⎧䟿ⴁ⍻ᮠᦞҏቡᡀѪẕằ⣦ᘱ䇴ՠ઼ᙗ㜭亴⍻Ⲵޣ䭞⧟㢲DŽẕằڕᓧⴁ⍻㌫㔏䟷䳶ࡠⲴᮠᦞˈ䙊ᑨоᰦ䰤ᴹᖸᕪⲴޣ㚄ᙗˈᰦ䰤ᒿࡇ࠶᷀ᯩ⌅ԕᮠᦞᵜ䓛Ѫࠪਁ⛩ˈ᧒≲ᰦᒿᵜ䓛Ⲵ㿴ᖻˈԕᰦ䰤ᒿࡇᯩ⌅࠶᷀ڕᓧⴁ⍻ᮠᦞˈׯҾӾᮤփкᢺᨑẕằⲴ⣦ᘱؑ᚟ˈԕ㠣亴⍻ᵚᶕⲴ⣦ᘱؑ᚟DŽᴹ䢤Ҿ↔ˈᵜ᮷ԕ¯ᮠᦞ傡ࣘᔪ⁑āѪᇇᰘˈ䟷⭘ᰦ䰤ᒿࡇ⨶䇪ѝᴰᑨ⭘Ⲵ㠚എᖂ━ࣘᒣ൷˄ARMA˅⁑රሩẕằⴁ⍻ᮠᦞ䘋㹼ᔪ⁑ˈᒦ൘䈕⁑රⲴส⹰кˈสҾⴁ⍻ᮠᦞ䇑㇇࠶᷀ẕằⲴਟ䶐ᤷḷDŽާփ⹄ウ޵ᇩྲл˖俆ˈ䈖㓶ӻ㓽ҶARMA⁑රᔪ・Ⲵޣ䭞↕僔ˈᒦᓄ⭘Levenberg-Marquarat

5、㇇⌅ሩ৲ᮠՠ䇑䘋㹼ҶՈॆ᭩䘋DŽ❦ਾˈ㔃ਸԺ䙊⋣བྷẕⲴѫằㄆੁ࣐䙏ᓖⴁ⍻ᮠᦞˈᓄ⭘᭩䘋Ⲵՠ䇑㇇⌅ᔪ・ARMA⁑රˈሩަ䘋㹼࠶᷀о亴⍻ˈ傼䇱ᰦ䰤ᒿࡇ࠶᷀ᯩ⌅Ⲵਟ㹼ᙗˈᒦ৲㘳࣐᤯བྷᆹབྷ⮕ⴱẕ㿴(OHBDC-1995)ѝᇩ䇨࣐䙏ᓖⲴ䲀ᇊˈሩԺ䙊⋣ẕⲴ㹼䖖㡂䘲ᓖ䘋㹼Ҷ䇴ᇊDŽ❦ਾˈ㔃ਸԺ䙊⋣བྷẕⲴٮ䀂Ԛᮠᦞˈ䙊䗷䇑㇇᤮ਆѫằᥐᓖؑ᚟ˈᔪ・ARMA⁑රˈ䘋㹼ᮠᦞ༴⨶࠶᷀ˈሩᥐᓖᮠᦞ䘋㹼㔏䇑࠶᷀ˈᓄ⭘Ṩᇶᓖՠ䇑ᯩ⌅ՠ䇑ᥐᓖᮠᦞⲴᾲ⦷ᇶᓖ࠭ᮠˈᒦᓄ⭘MCMC⁑ᤏ⌅䇑㇇࠶᷀Ҷѫằ൘↓ᑨ⭘ᶱ䲀⣦ᘱлⲴਟ䶐ᤷḷˈ傼䇱Ҷᯩ⌅Ⲵਟ㹼ᙗˈᒦ࠶᷀Ҷẕằ㔃ᶴㄆੁᥐᓖ䲀٬Ⲵ䘹ਆሩѫằ↓ᑨ⭘⣦ᘱлਟ䶐ᙗ

6、㜭䇴ᇊⲴᖡ૽㿴ᖻDŽᴰਾˈ㔃ਸԺ䙊⋣བྷẕⲴ਺ᵶ঻࣋⧟ᮠᦞˈ䇶࡛ަޣ䭞ᶴԦ——਺ᵶⲴ㍒࣋ˈᔪ・ҶARMA⁑රˈ䘋㹼ᮠᦞ༴⨶࠶᷀ˈሩ਺ᵶ㍒࣋ᮠᦞ䘋㹼㔏䇑࠶᷀ˈᓄ⭘Ṩᇶᓖՠ䇑ᯩ⌅ՠ䇑਺ᵶ㍒࣋ᮠᦞⲴᾲ⦷ᇶᓖ࠭ᮠˈᒦᓄ⭘MCMC⁑ᤏ⌅䇑㇇࠶᷀Ҷ3ṩԓ㺘਺ᵶⲴਟ䶐ᤷḷˈ傼䇱Ҷᯩ⌅Ⲵਟ㹼ᙗˈᒦ࠶᷀Ҷ਺ᵶ䫒эᕪᓖ઼ⴤᖴⲴਈᔲᙗሩ਺ᵶਟ䶐ᤷḷⲴᖡ૽㿴ᖻDŽީ䭤䈃φẕằڕᓧⴁ⍻˗ARMA⁑ර˗৲ᮠՠ䇑˗ਟ䶐ᤷḷ˗ᮠᦞ傡ࣘᔪ⁑I૸ቄ┘ᐕъབྷᆖᐕᆖ⺅༛ᆖս䇪᮷AbstractSincethe1980s,withtherapiddevelopmentofChineseeconomy,agreat

7、dealachievementshavebeenmadeinthefieldofbridgeconstruction.Meanwhile,likeothercontriesallovertheworld,thebridgeprojectsinChinaarefacingthebridgeaccidents.Forthisreason,manybridgeconstructionshaveinstalleddifferentsizesofhealthmonitoringsystemsathomeandabroad.Uptonow,thetechnologyofth