操作管理-决策工具.ppt

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1、OperationsManagementDecision-MakingToolsModuleA21998byPrenticeHall,Inc.OutlineTheDecisionProcessinOperationsFundamentalsofDecisionMakingDecisionTablesDecisionMakingUnderRiskExpectedValueofPerfectInformation(EVPI)DecisionTreesAMoreComplexDecisionTree31998byPrenticeHall,Inc.Le

2、arningObjectivesStatethedecisionprocessDescribedecisiontables&treesExplaindecisionmakingunderriskComputeexpectedmonetaryvalueUsedecisiontables&treestomakedecisions41998byPrenticeHall,Inc.Models,andtheTechniquesofScientificManagementCanHelpManagersTo:Gaindeeperinsightintothena

3、tureofbusinessrelationshipsFindbetterwaystoassessvaluesinsuchrelationships;andSeeawayofreducing,oratleastunderstanding,uncertaintythatsurroundsbusinessplansandactions51998byPrenticeHall,Inc.StepstoGoodDecisionsDefineproblem&influencingfactorsEstablishdecisioncriteriaSelectdec

4、ision-makingtool(model)Identify&evaluatealternativesusingdecision-makingtool(model)SelectbestalternativeImplementdecision61998byPrenticeHall,Inc.AdvantagesofUsingModelsTheyarelessexpensiveanddisruptivethanexperimentingwiththerealworldsystemTheyallowoperationsmanagerstoask“Wha

5、tif”typesofquestionsTheyarebuiltformanagementproblemsandencouragemanagementinputTheyforceaconsistentandsystematicapproachtotheanalysisofproblemsTheyrequiremanagerstobespecificaboutconstraintsandgoalsrelatingtoaproblemTheycanhelpreducethetimeneededindecisionmaking71998byPrenti

6、ceHall,Inc.LimitationsofModelsTheymaybeexpensiveandtime-consumingtodevelopandtestTheyareoftenmisusedandmisunderstood(andfeared)becauseoftheirmathematicalcomplexityTheytendtodownplaytheroleandvalueofnonquantifiableinformationTheyoftenhaveassumptionsthatoversimplifythevariables

7、oftherealworld81998byPrenticeHall,Inc.决策过程TheDecision-MakingProcess问题Problem决策Decision计量分析QuantitativeAnaly逻辑Logic历史资料HistoricalData行销研究MarketingResearch科学分析ScientificAnalysis模式Modeling计质分析QualitativeAnalysis感情Emotions直观Intuition个人经验和激励PersonalExperienceandMotivation谣言Rumors9

8、1998byPrenticeHall,Inc.决策问题DecisionProblem方案Alternatives自然的状况Stateso