台湾大学财务廖咸兴Project Analysis Training.ppt

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1、Irwin/McGraw-HillChapter8FundamentalsofCorporateFinanceThirdEditionProjectAnalysisBrealeyMyersMarcusslidesbyMatthewWillTopicsCoveredHowFirmsOrganizeTheirInvestmentProcessSome“WhatIf”QuestionsSensitivityAnalysisBreakEvenAnalysisFlexibilityinCapitalBud

2、getingDecisionTreesOptionsCapitalBudgetingProcessCapitalBudget-Thelistofplannedinvestmentprojects.TheDecisionProcess1-Developandrankallinvestmentprojects2-Authorizeprojectsbasedon:GovtregulationProductionefficiencyCapacityrequirementsNPVCapitalBudget

3、ingProcessCapitalBudgetingProblemsConsistentforecastsConflictofinterestForecastbiasSelectioncriteria(NPVandothers)HowToHandleUncertaintySensitivityAnalysis-Analysisoftheeffectsofchangesinsales,costs,etc.onaproject.ScenarioAnalysis-Projectanalysisgive

4、naparticularcombinationofassumptions.SimulationAnalysis-Estimationoftheprobabilitiesofdifferentpossibleoutcomes.BreakEvenAnalysis-Analysisofthelevelofsales(orothervariable)atwhichthecompanybreakseven.SensitivityAnalysisExampleGiventheexpectedcashflow

5、forecastslistedonthenextslide,determinetheNPVoftheprojectgivenchangesinthecashflowcomponentsusingan8%costofcapital.Assumethatallvariablesremainconstant,excepttheoneyouarechanging.SensitivityAnalysisExample-continuedNPV=$478SensitivityAnalysisExample-

6、continuedPossibleOutcomesSensitivityAnalysisExample-continuedNPVCalculationsforPessimisticInvestmentScenarioNPV=($121)SensitivityAnalysisExample-continuedNPVPossibilitiesBreakEvenAnalysisExampleGiventheforecasteddataonthenextslide,determinethenumbero

7、fplanesthatthecompanymustproduceinordertobreakeven,onanNPVbasis.Thecompany’scostofcapitalis10%.BreakEvenAnalysisBreakEvenAnalysisAnswerThebreakevenpoint,isthe#ofPlanesSoldthatgeneratesaNPV=$0.Thepresentvalueannuityfactorofa6yearcashflowat10%is4.355Th

8、us,AnswerSolvingfor“PlanesSold”BreakEvenAnalysisOperatingLeverageOperatingLeverage-Thedegreetowhichcostsarefixed.DegreeofOperatingLeverage(DOL)-Percentagechangeinprofitsgivena1percentchangeinsales.OperatingLeverageExample-Acompanyhassalesoutcomesthat