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1、蒸蒸日上的中国港口业分析员:郑栋2007年8月12日1内容提要第一章行业基本面回顾第二章重点公司推荐2第一章行业基本面回顾3吞吐量大增. GDP和外贸增长是主要动力今年上半年国内主要港口的吞吐量同比上升15.5%,增幅较上年同期略低2个百分点。上半年中国GDP增长11.5%,外贸增长23.3%,成为港口吞吐量上升的最重要动力。资料来源:CEIC,中金公司研究部Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisn
2、otanoffertobuyorsellorasolicitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesfortho
3、secompanies.ThisreportmayalsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyany
4、institutionorindividualisprohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.4集装箱业务表现最为强劲资料来源:中金公司研究部,中国航贸网在港口业务中,今年上半年集装箱吞吐量创下24.4%的同比升幅,较上年同期的增速高1.2个百分点,在所有港口业务中居首。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletothepublic.Norepresentationismadethatitisaccurateorcomplete.Thisdocumentisnotanoffertobuyorsellorasol
5、icitationofanoffertobuyorsellthesecuritiesmentioned.ChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedandothersassociatedwithit(CICC)mayhavepositionsin,andmayeffecttransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesmentionedhereinandmayalsoperformorseektoperforminvestmentbankingservicesforthosecompanies.Thisreportmaya
6、lsobemadeavailableinHongKongbyChinaInternationalCapitalCorporation(HongKong)Limitedand/orChinaInternationalCapitalCorporationHongKongSecuritiesLimited.CopyrightofthisdocumentbelongstoCICC.Anyformofunauthorizeddistribution,reproduction,publication,releaseorquotationbyanyinstitutionorindividualisp
7、rohibitedwithoutCICC’swrittenpermission.5集装箱业务增长的动力:外贸增长,出口升级及运输集装箱化率的提升资料来源:CEIC,辽宁师大,中金公司研究部我们的宏观分析小组预计今明两年外贸将分别增长26%和20%。中国的出口结构继续升级。中国的集装箱化率远低于国际同业。我们估计未来三年，中国港口集装箱业务年复合增长率将达20%。Thisreportisbasedoninformationavailabletot
