中国汇率制度对越中双边贸易的影响分析.pdf

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1、UNIVERSITYCODE:10246STUDENTID:10210680322CHINA'SEXCHANGERATEPOLICYANDITSIMPACTSONTHEBILATERALTRADEBETWEENVIETNAMANDCHINAMATHESISPresentedinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementfortheMasterDegreebytheGraduateSchoolofFudanUniversityByNguyen,ThiVietHaFudanUniversity2012ThesisAdvi

2、sor:Lu,QianJinSignature:ThesisCommittee:Approvedby:Professor:Professor:Professor:DefenseDate:April27,2012MAPrograminChineseEconomy指导小组成员名单陆前进副教授殷醒民教授范剑勇教授何立新副教授TableofContents觀1Abstract2Introduction3I.Theoreticalframeworkandliteraturereview41.1.Theoriesofexchange

3、rateandexchangeratepolicy41.2.Literaturesofexchangeratepolicyanditsimpactsoninternationaltrade5II.ExchangerateissuesinVietnamandChina92.1.ExchangeratepolicyinVietnamandChina92.1.1.ExchangeratepolicyinVietnam92.1.2.ExchangeratepolicyinChina132.2.RmbagainstVndviay

4、ears192.3.CharacteristicsofexchangerateregimeinVietnamandChina22III.ImpactsonthebilateraltradebetweenVietnamandChina283.1.ImpactsonexportsandimportstoChina283.2.ModelMethodology373.3.Implicationsforthemodels47IV.DiscussontheexchangeratepolicyinVietnamandChinainc

5、omingyears494.1.ExchangeratepolicyinVietnamandChinainthecoiningyears494.2.Challengesonthebilateraltradeflows51V.ConclusionsandPolicyimplications545.1.Conclusions545.2.Policyimplications55Appendix57References60Postscript63IVFigures,piesandtablesFigure1:Exchange

6、rateUsd/Vndfrom1994toJanuary201212Figure2:ChinadevaluatedtheyuanSharplyin199415Figure3:RmbagainstUsdfrom2008-Feb.201218Figure4:PeriodsofExchangeratepolicyofChina19Figure5:Rmb/Vndviayears20Figure6:Rmb/VndinMarch201220Figure7:CompareexchangerateofsomecountriestoUsd

7、22Figure8:InflationinVietnam,Philippines,China,ThailandandMalaysia23Figure9:VietnamexportstoChina(milliondollar)29Figure10:VietnamimportsfromChina(milliondollar)32Figure11:TradebalancebetweenVietnamandChinaviayears(milliondollars)34Figure12:Exchangeratefrom1994till2/201

8、236Figure13:Seasonaltreatment42Figure14:Chineseyuanagainstothercurrencies52Figu