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1、ResearchofCottonImportWelfareEffectChangesandItsInfluencingFactorsAbstractSincethereformandopeningup,thedomesticdemandforcottonpresentsasubstantialincreaseinthetrend,butthedomesticcottonproductiongrewunderpowered,resultingfromthetraditionalChinesecotton
2、netexporterintoanetimporter,andimportsfluctuatedupwardtrendoverall.Alargenumberofcottonimportscanreallyalleviatedomesticdemandforcotton,canincreasethelevelofdomesticsocialwelfareandaseriesofissuesworthconsidering,sochangesinthewelfareeffectsofChina'scot
3、tonimportsanditsinfluencingfactors,whichwillnotonlyhelpprotectthedomesticcottonandsustainedandhealthydevelopmentofrelatedindustries,butalsoitisadvantageoustothecountrycanmakemorereasonablecottontradepolicy,safeguardnationaleconomicsecurityandsocialstabi
4、lity,thestudyhasastrongtheoreticalandpracticalsignificance.OnthebasisofChina'scottonproduction,consumptionandimporttradesituationanalysis,firstlyuseofArmingtonelasticityofsubstitutionandwelfaremeasuremethodofcombiningthemodel,Neverconsidertheimporttarif
5、f,Withinthequotaimporttariffrates,andoutsidequoteconsiderslidingratechangesonChineseimportsofthewelfareeffectsofchangesincottonweremeasuredandanalyzed;thenuseQuantilemethodfromcottonproduction,cottondemand,thedevelopmentofcotton,cottonpricesandinternati
6、onaleconomicrelationsandsoontoanalysetheimpactfactorsofimportofChinesecottonwelfareeffects,theresultsareasfollows:(1)China'scottonproductionincreasedslowly,afterthefirstincreaseinthelevelofconsumptiondecreaseandimportsrapidlyrisinginstability.Relatively
7、stabledomesticcottonproduction,cottonproductionof4.51milliontonsfrom1992to2013of6.31milliontons;domesticcottonconsumptionincreasesfirstandthendecreasetrend,firstbytheconsumptionof4.93milliontonsin1992to2006in11.67milliontonsandthenreducedto8milliontonsi
8、n2013;cottonimportquantityandimportslargeamountofvolatility,instability,butanincreasingtrend,whilecottonhasalwayspricedaround$1.5/kgfluctuationsandimportconcentrationofcottonishigh,mainlyinAustralia,Brazil,India,theUnitedStatesan
