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1、TheResearchonTradeCostofAgriculturalProductsbetweenChinaandtheFiveCentralAsianCountriesAbstractInordertostudythelevel,changingtrendandinfluencefactorsofagriculturaltradecostbetweenChinaandthefivecentralAsiancountries,weusetheNovy’stradecostmodeltomeasurethetradecostofagriculturalbe
2、tweenChinaandthefivecentralAsiancountriesfrom1993to2012indetail.Andthenwedocomparativeanalysisfromdifferentangles.ResultsshowthattradecostofagriculturalbetweenChinaandthefivecentralAsiancountriesshowsthedownwardtrendofvolatility,whilethedroprateislessthanotherproducts’.Seeingfromth
3、eperspectiveoftimedynamic,thechangingoftradecostofagriculturalproductsbetweenChinaandthefivecentralAsiancountriescanbedividedintofourstages:dropstage(1993-1995),volatilityrisingstage(1996-2002),volatilitydecliningstage(2003-2005),steadystage(2006-2012).Fromtheperspectiveoftheabsolu
4、tevalueofthebilateraltradecost,theaveragetradecostofagriculturalproductsbetweenChinaandKazakhstanisthelowest.Lookingfromthedeclinerangeofbilateraltradecostsofagriculturalproducts,thebiggestdroprangewithChinaamongfivecountriesbelongstoUzbekistan.Byanalyzingnaturalfactors,tradepolicy
5、,infrastructureandservice,wefoundthat,thoughsuperiorityofnaturalcondition(thegeographicalfactorsmainly)ontradepromotingeffectstillexists,thetradepolicy,infrastructureandservices,especiallythedevelopmentofexportfinancingservicescangreatlyweakentheadverseimpactofnaturalfactorsontrade
6、.Forexample,theimprovementofthelogisticsenvironmentandthedevelopmentofprocessingindustryofagriculturalproductextendthefreshnessofagriculturalproducts,whichisequaltoshortenthegeographicdistancebetweensuppliersanddemanderstosomedegree.Thetradepolicyofnon-tariffmeasureshasreplacedthet
7、ariffbarriersbecometheimportantobstaclesaffectingagriculturaltradecostreduction.Inthepastfewdecades,thetariffintheworldscopeisreducedgreatly.AndlowertariffsmadeanimportantcontributiontoreducethetradecostofagriculturalbetweenChinaandthefivecentralAsiancountries.Butwealsofoundthataft
8、erthetariffbarriersweakene
