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ID:49946240
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页数:9页
时间:2020-03-03
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1、Howbigathreat?HighoilpriceswillhurttheBritisheconomy,butitwillcopebetterthanothermajoreconomies.TheBankofEnglandmadenochangetointerestratesonNovemberTheBank'smonetary-policycommitteehasnowkeptthebaserateat4.75%forthreemonths,confoundingexpectationsinthesummerofahike5.0%thismonth.Low
2、ergrowthinthethirdquarterandsignsthatthehousingmarkethasfinallyrunoutofsteamaretworeasonswhytheBankhaskeptitshandofftheinterest-ratetrigger.Butthecommitteewillalsohavetakenintoaccounttheoilprice,whichhasleaptbyafifthinthepastthreemonths.ThepriceofBrentcrudehasrisenby60%sincethestart
3、oftheyear.Pastoil-priceshock总havetippedtheBritisheconomyintorecession,sotherearegroundsforconcern.Thetwooil-priceshocksofthe1970sgeneratedanoxiousmixoframpantinflationandrecession.Eachtime,risingfuelbillsnotonlyledtoaninflationcuyprice-wagespiralbutalsoimposedwhatwasineffectabigtaxo
4、noil-users,sendingtheeconomyintoatailspin.Buthistorydoesnotnecessarilyrepeatitself.Foronething,thisyear'soil-priceshockislessshockingthanthoseofthe1970s,whentheoil-pricefirstquadrupledin1973-74andthentrebledbetween1978and1980.Inrealterms,theoilpriceiscurrentlyabouthalfthepeakitreach
5、edin1980.Foranother,theeconomyislessreliantuponoil.ItusesaboutathirdlessoilperunitofGDPthan20yearsago,accordingtotheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch・Asimportant,theeconomyisnotbetterabletocopewithoil-priceshocksthaninthepast.Wagesandpricesarenolongersubjecttothecontrolsi
6、mposedinthe1970s・Labor-marketreformshavemadewagesalotmoreflexible.Andintensifyingcompetitioninproductmarketsmeansthatfirmsfinditmuchmoredifficulttopassonhighercostsbyraisingprices.Themark-upmentalityhasfaded.'Theeconomyhasalsobeenbettermanagedsincethegovernmentfirstswitchedtotargeti
7、nginflationin1992andthenmadetheBankofEnglandindependentin1997.TheBankassuccessinkeepinginflationlowinthepastfewyearshadentrenchedexpectationsofpricestability.Despitetheoil-priceincreases,consumerpricesrosebyjust1.1%intheyeartoSeptember.Withinflationthislow,thedangerofanotherupwardpr
8、ice-wagespiralseems
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