(最新)ev-hev市场预测.pdf

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1、June26,2009Global:TechnologyJune26,2009Global:TechnologyFullycharged:LookforundervaluedwinnersinbatterysectorboomSteadygrowthinEVstodriveli-ionbatterymarketgrowthGSSUSTAIN:Weestimatethelithium-ion(li-ion)batterymarketwillmorethandoubleAlternativeEnergy

2、fromits2009levelto¥1.8tnby2014,drivenbydemandforuseinautomobiles.Ourbest-casescenariocallsforthemarkettogrowto¥4.3tnPOTENTIALFY3/15SALESGROWTHFORBATTERYSTOCKSby2020.Webelieveelectricvehicles(EV)willbethemaindriverofcarli-FY3/09FY3/09Salesgrowthiondeman

3、dnearterm.WeseeEVdemandgrowingmorestronglythan%of%ofCodeCompanyfromFY3/09totaltotalsomemarketobserversexpectthankstoincreasedsubsidiesandfallingtoFY3/15salesop6701NEC0.1%Loss64.0Xbatterycosts.EVbatterycapacityrequirementsareveryhigh,andthis6674GSYuasa1

4、%Loss29.0Xshouldgivestrongimpetustoli-ionbatterydemand.Forhybridvehicles,6501Hitachi0.3%Loss3.5X6752Panasonic1%-2.0Xmeanwhile,weexpectamoregradualshiftfromNiMHbatteriestoli-ion.6764SanyoElectric15%>30%1.4XSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimate

5、s.Customersthekeynearterm,focusonNissansuppliersPOTENTIALFY3/15SALESGROWTHFORMATERIALSTOCKSWeexpectmajorearningsdisparitiestoarisebetweenbatteryandFY3/09SalesgrowthProduct%ofCodeCompanyfromFY3/09materialsmakersamidrapidgrowthindemandfromtheautoindustry

6、.totaltoFY3/15opThisisbecausebatteryandmaterialsdecisionsarelargelycompletefor5563NipponDenkoCathode0%-10%15.6X4047KantoDenkaKogyoElectrolytesalt10%-20%2.8Xfirst-generationmodelsthatwillreachthemarketby2012andwewouldSeparator4208UbeIndustries10%-20%2.7

7、XElectrolytenotexpectabruptchangesinsupplyrelationshipsthereafter.WethereforeBinder4023Kureha0%-10%2.3XAnodeseethecustomerprofileascrucialtoevaluatingbatteryandpartsmakers.4109StellaChemifaElectrolytesalt>30%2.1X5801FurukawaElectricCopperfoil20%-30%2.1

8、XJapaneseautomakersvaryintheirstanceoneco-cars,andwethink4217HitachiChemicalAnode10%-20%2.0XbenefitswillaccruefirsttosupplierstotheEVcamp.Wehighlightbattery5012TonenGeneralSeparator0%-10%1.9X4100TodaKogyoCathodeLoss1.6Xandmaterialsmaker