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1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonlyForofficeuseonlyT1________________F1________________42931T2________________F2________________T3________________F3________________T4________________ProblemChosenF4________________D2016MeasuringtheEvolutionandInfluenceinSociet
2、y’sInformationNetworksSummarySheetInformationisspreadquicklyintoday’stech-connectedcommunicationsnetwork.Inordertomeasuretheevolutionandinfluenceinsociety’sinformationnetworks,we'vedeterminedtobuildfourmodels.Firstly,we'vebuiltaninterpersonalinformationprop
3、agationmodelbasedonCellularAutomata.AccordingtotheLawofLargeNumber,wefindthattheaveragespreadspeedofinformationisofpositiverelevancewiththestrengthoftheinformation,whiletheinstantaneouspropagationvelocityofinformationisofnegativerelevancewiththeonlineinform
4、ationsharinglevel.We'vealsofoundacriticalvalueof0.6(outof1)existingininformationdiffusion--theinformationcanbediffusedonlywhentheinherentvalueofinformationexceeds0.6,otherwiseitwillbefilteredout.Secondly,throughfuzzyevaluationmodel,weareabletojudgetheinhere
5、ntvalueofnewsfromdifferenttimes.We'vedefinedthatonlywhentheinherentvalueoftheinformationexceedsthecriticalvalue0.6,itwillbequalifiedasnews.Thirdly,we'vebuiltagraypredictionmodel.Basedontheexistingdata,we'vemadepredictionstousageratesofdifferentmedia,withthe
6、resultofrelativeerrorfor4.5-6.5%.Moreover,we'vepredictedthesituationin2050basedonourmodel:by2050,theusageratesoftheseveralprimarymediawillrespectivelyreach:newspapers12.65%,radio16.65%,TV36%,Internet>100%.Finally,we'vebuiltthefuzzycellularautomatamodeltoref
7、lectpeople'sattitudes(indicatedas0-9)towardsinformationbyfuzzyinferences.Then,throughMamdanifuzzyreasoningalgorithm,we'vecometotheinternalprobabilityfordifferentcellulartoinfluenceeachotherandtheexternalprobabilityfromtheinfluenceofthetopologyofmassmedia.Th
8、esetwoprobabilitiesareindependent,buttheytogetheraffecttheflowofinformation.Thuswecandrawthefollowingconclusions:duringtheprocessofinformationdissemination,peoplewithsimilarviewsarelikelytostaytogether
