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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、PhilippinesPhilippinesBanksSectorApavedroadforROEstoimproveBanks
3、SectorReviewFigure1:RationalpricingandfavourableassetandloanmixtodriveNIIandROE1.9ResearchAnalysts1.71.51.31.10.90.70.5+55+3-19-11.11%-81.38%DanieloPicache6328587758danielo.picache@credit-
4、suisse.comSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■ROErecoveryintact.Inourview,top-downfactorssuchaseasinginterestrates,improvingsystemliquidityandarecoveryingovernmentspendingarekeydriversforbankstoimproveloangrowthmomentum.Meanwhile,bottom-upfactorssuchasfavourableassetmix,growthi
5、nhigh-yieldloansegments,andRRRcutseasingfundingcostpressureshouldkeepNIMsbuoyant.AddintheloweringofminimumCET-1capitalbufferfordomesticsystemicallyimportantbanks(DSIBs)andweseeaclearerpathforPhilsbankstosustainROEaccretionwithoutthenear-termthreatofsooner-than-expectedcashcalls.■Mac
6、robackdropsupportsloangrowth,NIMaccretion.Weestimatesystemwideloangrowthtorecoverto13.8%YoYin2020E.ThisisdrivenbyimprovingbusinessandconsumerconfidenceintheeconomyafterarecoveryinGDPgrowthandinflationalreadywellmanaged.Meanwhile,weremainconvincedthatPhilsbanksarewellpositionedtodeli
7、verbuoyantNIMsin2020-21E.Repricingriskontheassetsidewillputpressureonaverageyields,thoughwethinkthiscanbeoffsetbyassetmixoptimisation(i.e.,highercontributionofloans)andthestronggrowthinconsumerloans(i.e.strongergrowthinconsumerand/orSME/microlending).Wedoseeafurther200bpRRRcutnextye
8、arinordertofurtherimprovesystem-wideliquidityforthebanks,whichisaNIMcatalystaswell.■Valuationsremainattractive.WehavebeenstructurallybullishonPhilsbanks’NIMstoryanditremainsourkeycallheadinginto2020E.ImprovingvisibilityonEPSdrivers(particularlyNIMs)isacompellingrationale,inourview,t
9、orevisitthespace.Wepreferbanksthatarewellcapitalised,havegoodpotentialforNIMaccretion,astrongconsumerlendingfranchise,andimprovingoperatingleverage.WeexpectearningsgrowthtobebuoyantforthesebanksandwethinkcurrentvaluationsdonotcapturethispotentialrecoveryinROAsandROEs.WeremainOVERWEI
10、GHTonPhilsbanksfrom
