中国黄金业报告：至今为止黄金仍旧黯淡

《中国黄金业报告：至今为止黄金仍旧黯淡》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、FocuschartsandtableFigure2:ChinagoldcompaniessharepricevsgoldpriceFigure3:Goldpricevsratecutexpectations375315255195Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-191351,600751,450601,300451,150301,00015-1,670Goldpr

2、ice(US$/oz)ProbabilityofCut(%)1,6201,5701,5201,4701,4201,3701,320Sep-19Oct-19Oct-191,270ChinaGoldCompaniessharepriceindexed(LHS)Goldprice(RHS,US$/oz)Apr-19Apr-19Apr-19May-19May-19Jun-19Jun-19Jul-19Jul-19Aug-19Aug-19Sep-19Sep-19ProbabilityofCut(LHS,%)Goldprice(RHS,US$/oz)Source:TheBLOOMB

3、ERGPROFESSIONALTMservice,CreditSuisseResearchSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONALTMservice,CreditSuisseResearchFigure4:GoldpricevsUSbondyieldFigure5:Zijinsharepricevsgoldprice1,9001,6001,3001,000700Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-194005

4、.34.53.72.92.11.34.003.503.002.502.001.501.00Goldpricevs.ZijinHsharepriceZijinHsharepricey=0.0008x+1.1852R²=0.0246Goldprice(US$/oz)Goldprice(XAU,USD/oz)10yrtreasuryyield1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800Source:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONALTMservice,CreditSuisseResearchSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONA

5、LTMservice,CreditSuisseResearchUS$/oz1,4421,4512019EGoldprice1,3341,3911,393US$1,412/ozFigure6:Priced-ingoldpriceincurrentsharepricesFigure7:Chinagoldcompaniesearningssensitivity1,5001,4501,40030%25%20%15%1,3501,300ZijinHZijinAZhaojinCNGoldSDGoldH10%5%0%Pricedingoldprice2019EZiji

6、nZhaojinSDGoldCNGoldSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONALTMservice,CreditSuisseResearchSource:TheBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONALTMservice,CreditSuisseResearchFigure8:GoldcompaniesvaluationcomparisontableMcapP/E(x)P/B(x)EBITDA(x)20EROE(%)20EDivYld(%)20EFCFYld(%)CompanyTicker(US$b)PxRatingTPUpside19E20E21

7、E19E20E21E19E20E21EZijinH2899.HK11.13.0O4.035%13.710.910.71.61.51.46.15.65.314%5.1%8.0%ZijinA601899.SS11.13.6N3.60%18.815.014.82.22.12.07.67.06.714%3.7%5.8%Zhaojin1818.HK3.68.6N9.04%46.324.522.31.81.71.612.19.28.67%1.1%0.3%SDGoldH1787.HK12.516.9N16.1-5%33.118.519.32.11.91