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1、BeyondTechnicalAnalysisBeyondTechnicalAnalysis:HowtoDevelopandImplementaWinningTradingSystemTusharS.Chande,PhDJohnWiley61Sons,Inc.NewYork•Chichester•Brisbane•Toronto•Singapore•WeinheimThistextisprintedonacid-freepaper.Copyright©1997byTusharS.Chande.PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc

2、.DataScramblingisatrademarkofTusharS.Chande.TradeStadon,SystemWriterPlus,andPowerEditoraretrademarksofOmegaResearch,Inc.ExcelisaregisteredtrademarkofMicrosoftCorporation.ContinuousContractorisatrademarkofTechTools,Inc.PortfolioAnalyzerisatrademarkofTomBerry.Allrightsreserved.Pr

3、intedsimultaneouslyinCanada.ReproductionortranslationofanypartofthisworkbeyondthatpermittedbySection107or108ofthe1976UnitedStatesCopyrightActwithoutthepermissionofthecopyrightholderisunlawful.RequestsforpermissionorfurtherinformationshouldbeaddressedtothePermissionsDepartmentof

4、JohnWiley&Sons.Thispublicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothesubjectmattercovered.Itissoldwiththeunderstandingthatthepublisherisnotengagedinrenderinglegal,accounting,orotherprofessionalservices.Iflegaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,t

5、heservicesofacompetentprofessionalpersonshouldbesought.LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicatonData:Chande,TusharS.,1958-Beyondtechnicalanalysis:howtodevelop&implementawinningtradingsystem/TusharS.Chande.Includesindex.ISBN0-471-16188-8(cloth:alk.paper)1.Investmentanalysis.I.Tide

6、.II.Series.HG4529.C4881997332.6—dc2096-34436PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica1098765432ContentsPrefacexiAcknowledgmentsxiii1DevelopingandImplementingTradingSystems1Introduction1TheUsualDisclaimer3WhatIsaTradingSystem?3Comparison:DiscretionaryversusMechanicalSystemTrader4WhyShou

7、ldYouUseaTradingSystem?5RobustTradingSystems:TOPSCOLA6HowDoYouImplementaTradingSystem?7WhoWins?WhoLoses?8BeyondTechnicalAnalysis92PrinciplesofTradingSystemDesign11Introduction11WhatAreYourTradingBeliefs?12SixCardinalRules14Rule1:PositiveExpectation15Rule2:ASmallNumberofRules17v

8、iiiContentsRule3:RobustTradingRules22Rule4:TradingMult