股票外汇技术分析英文版ppt (11)

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1、BeyondtheFundamentals;TechnicalAnalysisFIN40500:InternationalFinanceFundamentalanalysisfocusesoneconomic/financialtheoryandvariouseconomicindicatorstoexplainmarketmovementsTradeBalanceApproachMonetaryApproachInterestRateApproachPriceLevelApproachChartAnalysi

2、sQuantitativeMethodsTechnicalanalysisisnotconcernedwiththecausesofmarketmovements.Instead,technicalanalysisfocusesonthemovementsthemselves.Isthereinformationinpastpricemovementsthatcanbeusedtopredictfuturemovements?Theforecastingequationforatechnicalanalysis

3、wouldbesomethinglikethis$/Euro:Weeklydataover3yearsChartanalysisbeginswithatimeseriesplotofanasset’spriceChartscanbehourly,daily,weekly,etc.Higherfrequencydatawillbemoredetailed,butnoisierAchartistlooksforpatternsinthetoidentifyresistance(upperbounds)andsupp

4、ortlevels(lowerbounds)OldSupportlevelNewSupportlevelA“breakout”indicatesanewpatternformingConnecttwoconsecutivehighstogettheupperchannelAparallellinethrougharecentlowbecomesthelowersupportBullishchannelstendtohaveupwardbreakoutsFindthetrendbyconnectingatleas

5、ttwohighsTwolowscompletethetriangle“Breakout”occursattheapex,usuallywithincreasingvolumeAscendingtrianglesusuallyhaveupwardbreakoutsTwolowsidentifythe“leadin”trendThe“Run”:AbreakoutfromtheleadintrendThe“Bump”:Increaseintrendbymorethan50%Twolowsidentifythe“le

6、adin”trendTheleftshoulderisthefirsthighabovethecurrenttrendTheheadisthefirstadvancepasttheleftshoulderTherightshoulderisthefirsthighfollowingthereversalThenecklineconnectsthetwoshouldersandindicateslowersupportWhatpatterndoyousee?“Bump”“Run”Fibonacci,oneofth

7、egreatestmathematiciansofalltimediscoveredasequenceofnumberswhicharenowusedacrossmanydisciplines1MonthOnePair(Y)NowOnePair(M)2MonthsTwoPair(M,Y)3MonthsThreePairs(M,M,Y)Y=Young,M=MatureSupposethatyoubeginwithapairofrabbits:Rabbitstakeonemonthtomature.Oncematu

8、re,theycanbreedoffspringOffspringcomeinpairs(onemaleandonefemale).ApairofoffspringareborneachmonthTherabbitsneverdieCanyoufindthePattern?EachnumberintheFibonaccisequenceisthesumoftheprevioustwo1