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1、AbstractGasturbineisanimportantpartoftheship'spowersystem.Inordertoprotecttheship'ssafenavigationandperformtasks,weshouldmonitoringandpredictthestateofthegasturbine.Accordingtotheresultspredicted,wecanrepairthegasturbineinadvancetocontrolfaultatanear
2、lystage.Itdobenefittoreducemaintenancecostsandmaintenancecosts.Thispapermainlypredictsstateparameterofgasturbinetoachievelifepredictionandforecastingtaskexecutioncapabilities.Thispaperstudiesseveralcommonlyusedpredictivealgorithms,andtestandverifythe
3、m.Itsbasictheoryandthederivationoftheformulain-depthanalysis,andthuspreparedtheprogram.Thepaperalsoanalyzestheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofthesepredictivealgorithms.Secondly,inordertopredictwithgreateraccuracy,weuseacombinationofpreferredandvirtualpre
4、dictableideas,whichareusedtopredictthestateofgasturbine.Sothepaperverifiestheoperabilityandcorrectnessofthecombinationofpreferredandvirtualpredict,itissuperiortodirectprediction.Thepaperalsosumupgasturbinefailuremechanism.Andthisarticledescribessomed
5、atapreprocessingmethods,andverifythem.Finally,Basedontheentirelife-cyclegasturbinedegradationdatathatappears,cometotheactualgasturbinewillberunningpre-andpostdifferentdegradationtrends.,sothepaperusesS・Wtestandskewnesstesttofindthetransitionpoint.And
6、thesemethodsarefeasible.Thenthispaperproposednormalandtdistributionintervalprediction,andcomparedthemtofindnormaldistributionintervalpredictionisgood.Basedonthis,decliningtrendonthecompressorefficiencyismadepredictions,todeterminetheleftlifeofthecomp
7、ressor.Inaddition,thepaperaccordingtotheactualneedsmadeapreliminaryanalysisaboutgasturbinecapacityforecastsbaseonHrecessionrateandspeedrelated11Keywords：forecast；gasturbine；statustrends；life目录摘要IABSTRACTII第1章绪论11.1课题背景及意义11.2预测算法的发展情况31.2.1预测算法的简单介绍3
8、1.2.2预测需要考虑的几点41.3船用燃气轮机预测的特点51.4木文主要研究内容6第2章预测算法的理论研究72.1引言72.2时间序列模型72.2.1移动平均法72.2.2指数平滑法102.2.3自适应滤波法122.3最小二乘法132.3.1线性趋势132.3.2二次曲线趋势152.4灰色模型162.5木章小结21第3章状态趋势预测223.1引言223.2预测任务223.3燃气轮机的失效机理与失效模式233.3.1失效机理233.3.2失效模式243.4状态趋势分析253.5数据预处理与趋势检
