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1、外文翻译原文AsiaCommercialBankRealEstateFinancialCrisisMaterialSource:UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeleyAuthor:JohnM.QuigleyAbstractThispapersuggeststhatactivitiesintherealestatemarketsinSoutheastandEastAsianeconomieswereanimportantcontributingforcetothefinancialcrisesof1997intheAsianeconomie
2、s.Theanalysisreliesuponunpublisheddatareportedcontemporaneouslybyfinancialinstitutionsandmarketwatcherstodocumenttheextentoftheimbalancesintherealpropertymarketthatwereevidenttoinformedobserversatthetimeofthefinancialcollapse.Theanalysisarguesthataseriesofreformsintheregulationofthe
3、propertymarketandthetreatmentofrealpropertyloansbyfinancialinstitutionsarenecessarytopreventtherecurrenceofthekindofspeculativebubblethatcontributedtothefinancialcrisesinAsia.Giventherecentnessofthecrisis,thenatureofthedataandtheabsenceofdefinitivestatisticalsources,theresultsareten
4、tative,buttheyarecertainlyconsistentwithafinancialcollapsewhoseproximatecausewasuncheckedactivityinthepropertymarket.Keywords:AsianFinancialCrisis,SpeculativeBubbles,PropertyMarkets.I.IntroductionThelinkagebetweentherealestatemarketandthegeneralconditionsoftheeconomyhasbeenstudiedex
5、tensively.However,mostacademicresearchisfocussedonthewaysinwhicheconomic“fundamentals”affectpropertypricesorthewaysinwhichexpectationsaboutfundamentalsaffectpropertymarkets.(SeeMankiwandWeil,1989,foracelebratedexampleofthisresearch.)Researchalsocomparestheimportanceofeconomic“fundam
6、entals,”relativetotheimportanceof“history,”inaffectingoutcomesintherealestatemarket.(SeeQuigley,1999,forrecentevidence.)Economicmodelsarisingfromthislineofresearcharecapableofgeneratingpatternsofpricechangeovertimeinpropertymarketsinresponsetovariationsineconomicconditionsandtoexoge
7、nousshocks.(See,forexample,DiPasqualeandWheaton,1992,orCaseandShiller,1988.)Therehas,however,beenmuchlessattentiongiventotheoppositelineofcausation--thepotentialforexogenouschangesinpropertymarketstoaffectthesubsequenteconomicperformanceoftheeconomy.Thispaperexploresthislatterlineof
8、causationwithspecia
